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Wednesday, December 12, 2018

LOOK OUT YOUR WINDOW FOR SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE I-78 MANANA


IT'S VERY APPARENT  ON SATELLITE  IMAGERY AND TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES HERE AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE...
LOOK FOR THAT BAND OF SNOW TO INFILTRATE YOUR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE I-78 NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...THIS IS THE ABSOLUTE DATA...

POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A PLETHORA OF IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEW MEXICO EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS, EASTERN COLORADO, KANSAS, AND OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY WILL SPREAD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY SNOW.


POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A PLETHORA OF IMPACTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEW MEXICO EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS, 
EASTERN COLORADO, KANSAS, AND OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY WILL SPREAD UP THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED 
RECENT HEAVY SNOW.

STRONG STORM TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST REGION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...

A DEVELOPING STORM THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. HAS
BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AS WELL AS HEAVY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AND A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING TO ITS SOUTH. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE EFFECT OF AN INCREASED RISK OF SPREADING OF WILDFIRES ACROSS
FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. COLD TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM
THE NORTH INTO TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY.

MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO FUEL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX AND A LOW-END THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S MARGINAL
RISK EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE STEADY, LIGHT TO
MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WASHINGTON TONIGHT BUT
STALL, ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW INTO NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED GIVEN SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW,
THOUGH NOT AS HEAVY, WILL BE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  FARTHER EAST
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S, ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SEVEN DAY SEASONAL TEMPERATURE TANTRUM...GET THE VITAMINS READY...UP AND DOWN AND THEN DOWN ...YOU KNOW THE DRILL...IT'S DECEMBER FOLKS



ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME FLOODING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE...COLDER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND   
SUNDAY. SOME FLOODING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.  

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF THE EXTENDED STARTS TO   
DEVELOP IN THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO TRACK UP INTO THE   
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY   
TO THE NORTHEAST, A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.   
THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND THE ECMWF SHOW THIS LOW DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD   
OF THE STRONGER LOW TO ITS WEST. BUT THAT IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES   
START TO END. THE ECMWF TAKES THE COASTAL LOW AND MAKES IT MORE   
DOMINANT, WEAKENING THE INLAND LOW. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE MORE   
RAIN IMPACT US FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND LEAVE SUNDAY   
MOSTLY DRY AS THE INLAND LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE (WITH   
THE CENTER OF THE LOW REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH). THE CANADIAN KEEPS   
THE INLAND LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW   
CUTS OFF. THE COASTAL LOW IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST, DRYING   
US OUT BY LATER SATURDAY, LEAVING SUNDAY DRY. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE   
WETTEST OF THESE THREE MODELS. IT TAKES THE COASTAL LOW UP INTO OUR   
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THEN TAKES THE INLAND LOW ON A   
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO OUR AREA BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.   
WITH SUCH DIVERSE OUTPUT FROM THE THIS MODEL RUN, CONFIDENCE REMAINS   
FAIRLY LOW. WE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE   
FOR SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY. ONE GOOD THING IS ALL THE GUIDANCE IS   
SHOWING A WARMING TREND SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE   
MOSTLY, IF NOT ALL, RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.   

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AND THEN SNOW MOVES INTO MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.



SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN   
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AND   
THEN SNOW MOVES INTO MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.   
  
GOING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST.   
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE   
REGION, AND SNOW MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO   
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IN   
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW.  
  
FOR THE MOST PART, LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL ALONG   
AND NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN   
THE POCONOS, UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS   
POSSIBLE THERE.  
  
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN SE NJ AND   
DELMARVA, AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN MOST OF NORTHERN NJ  
AND SOUTHEAST PA. HIGHS IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR   
NORTHERN NJ WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.  

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NEAR CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NEW YORK BY  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING, WITH A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES AND  
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.   
  
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, PRECIPITATION COULD START OFF AS ALL  
SNOW FOR MOST PLACES. MUCH OF NEW YORK CITY WILL START OFF AS A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER   
WARMS UP. BY THE AFTERNOON, PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS LONG   
ISLAND, NEW YORK CITY, AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE ONE  
CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN  
PASSAIC AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DURING  
THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE  
POSSIBILITY OF ICE CRYSTALS NOT BEING PRESENT, WHILE AT THE   
SURFACE IT WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING, SO ANY PRECIPITATION   
WILL FALL AS LIQUID AND FREEZE ON CONTACT IN THESE AREAS.  
  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, ONLY LOOKING AT A  
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE, IT  
WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY, AND ONLY A  
COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH, IN OTHER WORDS A DUSTING. AGAIN,  
THE ONE CONCERN WOULD BE THE ICE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF THIS DOES END UP HAPPENING, A WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED. DO NOT HAVE ANY ICE  
ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST, BUT EVEN A WIDESPREAD TRACE AMOUNT  
OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE SITUATION.  

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEK NORTHWEST TO ROCKIES; HEAVY RAIN MAY BRING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST LATE WEEK AT LEAST TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL BATTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING AS MUCH AS TWO FEET OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL US BY LATE WEEK AND BRING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEK NORTHWEST TO ROCKIES; HEAVY RAIN MAY BRING FLOODING 
TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST LATE WEEK AT LEAST TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL BATTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING 
AS MUCH AS TWO FEET OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL 
THEN MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL US BY LATE WEEK AND BRING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.AFTER WANING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN/SNOW
FOR THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY...

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY COASTAL RAIN,
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT, THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO WANE BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE ROCKIES
AND NEARBY AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BY THURSDAY MORNING, A SECOND STORMS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TAKES AIM INTO WASHINGTON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW, WITH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 FEET POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES WHILE THE OLYMPICS
POSSIBLY PICKS UP ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO THE ONGOING
STORM SYSTEM.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A STORM WILL EMERGE WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS AND
MEXICO. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LOW THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS, FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THE REST OF THE NATION WILL SEE RATHER QUIET WEATHER WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD HAZARDS OR TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK


BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH AN INCH OR MORE.

POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY WITH AN INCH OR MORE.  

COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN MULTIPLE STREAMS   
AND PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT   
TO THE TIMING, PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL   
IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERMALLY, GUIDANCE IS ALL   
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WHATEVER SCENARIO PANS OUT IT SHOULD BE AN   
ALL RAIN EVENT. DIFFERENCES ARISE AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS DUE TO   
WAVELENGTH SPACING BETWEEN PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST   
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI   
VALLEY. IN ADDITION, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE   
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA POSES SOME INFLUENCE AS WELL. RAIN FROM   
THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO   
SATURDAY. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO   
DICTATE HOW MUCH OF A PLAYER IT COULD BE ON SUNDAY, BUT EMPHASIS AT   
THIS TIME IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, NO BIG   
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
  
PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE FLURRIES ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE   
THOUGH DAMPENS OUT IN THE BUILDING RIDGE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED   
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.   
WARM ADVECTION THEN ENSUES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS   
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. COLD ADVECTION ON THE   
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING   
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE.  


AN ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE BEFORE THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW. A COUPLE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE AND EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR VERY WET STORM SYSTEM WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN, THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

AN ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, 
AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE BEFORE THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD 
MOUNTAIN SNOW. A COUPLE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE AND EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR VERY WET STORM SYSTEM 
WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN, THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND
RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS INLAND ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON.  THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES MAY SEE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO FEET, AND 6 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AFTER A BRIEF LULL ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION.

ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS.  A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST STATES.  A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD BY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BE LARGELY CUT OFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCURSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES DURING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S.  THE
EAST COAST SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

Monday, December 10, 2018

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF FRIDAY.  
  
A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT   
WEEKEND, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT   
THIS TIME.  


A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO APPROACH THE   
AREA ON FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE   
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE   
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO   
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL   
PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY, PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF   
LONG ISLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND   
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS TO BE WARM   
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AND REMAIN PLAIN RAIN   
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.   
  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY.  
  

Sunday, December 9, 2018

A VERY MOIST SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO PRODUCE A NUMBER OF HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FLORIDA. WINTER WEATHER OF SNOW AND ICE FROM ARKANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR THE LATTER TO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.


A VERY MOIST SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO PRODUCE A NUMBER OF HAZARDS. 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FLORIDA. 
WINTER WEATHER OF SNOW AND ICE FROM ARKANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, 
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR THE LATTER 
TO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

WINTER STORM TO BRING ICE AND SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM FROM EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA.  WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO EASTERN VIRGINIA.  SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE ADJACENT PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF
A FOOT POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE BEST LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  TRAVEL WILL BE SEVERELY AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THESE AREAS, AND SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.  MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
WET SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL TEND TO LOWER
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THERE, BUT MAY STILL DISRUPT TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HEAVY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON THROUGH MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 

Thursday, December 6, 2018

LATE WEEK WINTER STORM TO BRING ICE AND SNOW FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINS TO IMPACT TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY... ...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

SOUTHERN STORM TO BRING ICE AND SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS; 
HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO GEORGIA
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING HEAVY RAIN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
TONIGHT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 
ICE AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA 
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHILE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, 
WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

LATE WEEK WINTER STORM TO BRING ICE AND SNOW FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY...

...HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINS TO IMPACT TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY...

...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DENOTE A COLD LOW APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PRODUCING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN AFFECT NEAR LOS ANGELES LIKELY TO
LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BEFORE THE STORM MOVES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW.  AHEAD OF THIS STORM, COLD AIR IS ALREADY
SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EVENTUALLY CENTERING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH DEPARTURES ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.  A MORE MODEST BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE COLD SPELL (5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) CROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND; THIS COLD WIND AND STILL WARM LAKES SHOULD PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

AS THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM ADVANCES, MOISTURE LIFTED OUT OF THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC WILL BLOW DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS OVER THE
COLD GROUNDS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE. 
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ARKANSAS APPEARS LIKELY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SNOW, A BAND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FREEZING RAIN FROM
ROUGHLY LUBBOCK, TX TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND INTO THE OZARKS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE .10 TO .25 INCH RANGE IS POSSIBLE.  
SOUTH OF THE WINTRY MIX, HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
WITH TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEARER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS GULF COAST; WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (POTENTIAL FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING)
WITH A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDING IT AND EXTENDING FURTHER EAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS THE STORM SHIFT EAST INTO SATURDAY. 
THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND CONTINUE BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD SPREADING HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER FROM PARTS TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
THE SOUTH (GREATEST FOCUS ON  INTO THE SOUTHEAST.


COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY


COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LATEST KDIX  
RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS ARE FAIRLY HIGH, GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF +10-15F,  
SO NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND.  
  
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN   
CANADA. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS   
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AS   
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED  
WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS  
THE AREA. THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL   
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS   
EVENING, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH   
OR SO WHERE ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCUR. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST   
ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW  
JERSEY, ANY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIKELY   
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.   
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED, EXCEPT SOME   
LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, CENTRAL AND   
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND   
MARYLAND.  
  
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, THE SHOWERS WILL   
COME TO AN END AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. WINDS   
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TO WEST AND   
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.  

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK...BUNDLE UP


WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK...BUNDLE UP