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Sunday, October 14, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ITS AXIS ALONG 41W FROM 
01N-11N, MOVING WEST AROUND 10-15 KT. A 700 MB TROUGH IS SHOWN BY
MODEL ANALYSES WITH THIS WAVE. TPW IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 37W-47W. SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ITS AXIS ALONG 49W FROM 08N-20N, MOVING 
WEST AT 10-15 KT. A 700 MB TROUGH IS DEPICTED BY MODEL ANALYSES 
WITH THE WAVE, AND THERE IS A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN TPW. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 45W-50W AND ALONG THE
WAVE'S AXIS SOUTH OF 11N. MOISTURE WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE COULD 
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY 
THIS WEEK ACCOMPANIED WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED 
SEAS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IT AXIS ALONG 60W FROM 08N-20N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS PREVAIL IN THE WAVE'S ENVIRONMENT MAINLY NORTH OF 15N.  
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE LEEWARD AND 
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, SPREADING TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR THE SENEGAL/GUINEA-BISSAU BORDER NEAR 13N17W AND 
EXTENDS TO 07N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N30W TO 06N39W, THEN 
RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N45W TO NORTHERN FRENCH 
GUIANA NEAR 05N53W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE 
TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 300 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ MAINLY WEST OF 38W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N84W TO 26N81W. A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA NEAR 38N78W. 
WITH THIS, DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT 
WILL STALL FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 96W 
THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
LIKELY BEHIND THAT FRONT STARTING TUE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR NW GULF ON MONDAY 
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO 16N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 68W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED
BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT JUST EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE BROAD LOW WILL SLOWLY 
SHIFT W TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MON. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, WINDWARD PASSAGE, HISPANIOLA
ADJACENT WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THU. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO 
29N71W, WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL 
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TO THE SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 24N67W TO 22N72W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 54W-67W 
ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER EAST, A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N15W TO
31N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 29N16N TO 26N19W. A 1025 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 33N32W, LEADING TO RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

THE LATEST DAILY 6-14 DAY NATIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE OUT FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER....




THE LATEST DAILY 6-14 DAY NATIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE OUT FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER....


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. 

  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
  
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20091009 - 19761021 - 19951028 - 19661001 - 19811022 
  
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20091008 - 19761020 - 19951027 - 19660930 - 19861007 
  
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 20 - 24, 2018 
  
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    B      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B      
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    N      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
  
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 22 - 28, 2018 
  
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A      
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 

RAIN BECOMES LIKELY MONDAY MORNING THEN A BREAK BEFORE COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT TO DAWN TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.  
THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT  
APPROACHES, AND THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT.  
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.  
  
RAIN THEN BECOMES LIKELY MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT SWEEPS  
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE IN  
THE DAY, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT   
THE DAY. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSING   
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND END BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. 

BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

SKIES CONTINUE TO BECOME OVERCAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK

SKIES CONTINUE TO BECOME OVERCAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES   
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP   
LATE TONIGHT, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO   
THE AREA UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.   
  
LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS   
PREVENT US FROM RADIATING MUCH AT ALL. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP   
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN   
POCONOS, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND   
SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO   
LOW 50S. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN   
CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  

IT'S THAT TIME ONCE AGAIN TO TAKE A LOOK AT AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER




IT'S THAT TIME ONCE AGAIN TO TAKE A LOOK AT AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER

WE BEGIN WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS ON NOVEMBER 1ST IN THE UPPER 50'S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOW AND MID 60'S CENTRAL AND SOUTH 

FALLING OFF AT MONTH'S END WITH INTERIOR READINGS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40'S FORA AVERAGE HIGHS TO THE LOW AND MID 50'S CENTRAL AND SOUTH

MORNING LOWS AVERAGE 35-45 DEGREES REGION WIDE ON NOVEMBER 1ST FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FALLING BY END OF MONTH INTO THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S 


SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES

MORNING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY RANGE FROM 38 AT HIGH POINT TO 53 AT THE JERSEY SHORE 

LEAVES ARE ON THE TURNING (YELLOW) MODERATE (ORANGE) AND PEAK (RED) PHASES THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS SUNDAY MORNING

LEAVES ARE ON THE TURNING (YELLOW) MODERATE (ORANGE) AND PEAK (RED) PHASES THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS SUNDAY MORNING

NATIONAL FORECAST OVERVIEW THROUGH TUESDAY


THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES, PLAINS, AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN
GULF COAST THAT WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS BY MONDAY MORNING.  BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTERN GULF COAST.  RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, ON SUNDAY
MORNING, EXPANDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONLY
TO WANE BACK THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. 

IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  WHILE ANOTHER AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL END
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING.  THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
BY MONDAY MORNING AND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENING.  ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO CANADA BY MONDAY EVENING.
 THE ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY MORNING, MOVING INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT MONDAY.


ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKEN BY MONDAY MORNING.  THE ENERGY WILL ALSO
AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, ON
SUNDAY, THAT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. 
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.  AN AREA OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.     

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS




TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS 

AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR YOUR SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL  
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING   
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID   
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM   
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO   
MID 50S IN THE METRO AREA, 40S ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL   
INCREASE TOWARDS THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE AND CONTINUE INTO   
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD   
FRONT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.   

FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COMMUNITIES TILL 9 AM

FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...AS LOW AS 34.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY DAMAGE SENSITIVE
  VEGETATION. TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE
  COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

Friday, October 12, 2018

NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST WEEKEND UPDATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY &
SUNDAY.   TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. 
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION

...HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. 
THE MOISTURE FROM SERGIO...HOWEVER...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. 

IN THE WAKE OF THE MOISTURE FROM SERGIO PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD A STRONG MID
LATITUDE CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND INTO
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA & NEW MEXICO. 

ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.  WITH THIS MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE AIR...NUMEROUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY..INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS..INCLUDING CHEYENNE AND DENVER.

A STRONG UPPER VORT EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT..INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM..WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS.

SHORT TERM SATURDAY MORNING SHOWERS EXIT BY NOON WITH CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE



STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE, AND WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION,   
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.   
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT QPF  
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE. RAINFALL SHOULD BE   
GENERALLY LIGHT, BUT HIGH RES MODELS INDICATING ENOUGH   
MOISTURE/FORCING/WEAK INSTABILITY FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS   
ACROSS LI/CT IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.   
  
CLOUD COVER, PRECIP, AND A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS OVER THE REGION   
(850 HPA TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C) SHOULD RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY   
CHILLY DAY (AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE) WITH HIGHS   
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  

WEEKEND AVIATION UPDATE

TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO   
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST GUSTS   
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON   
BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND TURNING MORE TO THE WEST.  
  
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE  
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE. LIGHT WEST WINDS  
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.   
  
OUTLOOK...   
  
SAT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. FEW SHOWERS EARLY SAT AND SUN   
NIGHT.   
  
MON THRU TUE...SCATTERED SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.