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Monday, March 18, 2019

MONITORING DELMARVA AND COASTAL NJ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY....THERE ARE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS WITH NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY THAT WILL DETERMINE THE PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY

 CURRENTLY USING MESOSCALE NAM MODEL GUIDANCE TO RESOLVE FOR LOCATION AND SURFACE FEATURES MOVING FORWARD 

***** NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS *****

THE FOCUS OF CONCERN IS MULTIPLE NORTHERN BRANCH STREAMS SENDING  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MEAN   
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE FIRST OF WHICH DIVES INTO THE   
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THE SECOND, INTO   
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THESE TWO FEATURES TRANSLATE TOWARD   
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY, A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY   
EXISTS WITH THEIR INTERACTION. OVERALL, GLOBAL MODELS DO   
SUPPORT SOME PHASING, BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME TO   
SPARE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT  
THE TRENDS SUPPORT SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE   
NORTH AND WEST. THE 12Z GEFS CLEARLY HAS MORE MEMBERS SHOWING A   
LOW 990 MB LESS NEAR THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z   
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THE LOW JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WITH   
OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF   
CONNECTICUT. THIS GEFS MEAN IS SUPPORTING A WETTER SOLUTION. THE  
GGEM ALSO WRAPS UP THE SYSTEM, BUT WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE   
WESTERN ATLANTIC.   
  
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR ALL RAIN THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF SNOW EARLY THURSDAY   
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD THE   
PRECIPITATION ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH. THIS WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO   
MUCH. THE CONCERN IS THAT SHOULD A MORE AMPLIFIED, DYNAMIC   
SYSTEM BE CLOSER TO THE COAST, FLAGS FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT   
WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS THAT WE ARE NOT  
THERE YET.   




SOME LATE SEASON MARCH AND APRIL SNOW STORMS HAVE SURPRISED MANY THROUGHOUT THE RECENT DECADES... THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR THAT TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK

SOME LATE SEASON MARCH AND APRIL SNOW STORMS HAVE SURPRISED MANY THROUGHOUT THE RECENT DECADES...
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR THAT TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK


NOW OF COURSE AS USUAL IN THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE OVERALL SETUP AND EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN PLAY ...EVERYTHING LIKE PAST LATE SEASON SNOWFALLS OF THIS NATURE MUST ALL COME TOGETHER CORRECTLY TO DYNAMICALLY AND ATMOSPHERICALLY DETERMINE IF..WHEN AND WHOM BY POPULATION CENTERS GETS INVOLVED ...WE ARE MONITORING 

NJ REGIONAL SHORT TERM OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS  
NEAR THE AREA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO  
INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT THOUGH, LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW  
SEASONABLE VALUES AS FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS  
DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR  
MONDAY, THEN MID TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE  
LOWER 20S TO MID 30S.   

A LOOK AT NJ APRIL CLIMATOLOGY...AVERAGE NORMAL DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES

 NJ APRIL CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS WE BEGIN THE MONTH ON AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50'S AND RISE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH IN THE MID 60'S

OVERNIGHT MINIMUM NORMALS BEGIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER  30'S AND RISE TOWARDS THE MID AND UPPER 40S TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH



Sunday, March 17, 2019

MAJOR TO HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS... ...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT MAY LEAD TO AREAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES

QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE...

...MAJOR TO HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS...

...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT MAY LEAD TO AREAL FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...


DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FLORIDA AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. TO THE NORTH, LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET AND MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL, WITH THE
GREATEST DEPARTURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MONDAY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH AREAS COULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MAJOR TO HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASINS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK
RESULTED IN RAPID SNOW MELT. FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY ALSO LEAD TO ACCELERATED SNOW MELT FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES.

SCATTERED FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND THE REGION, BUT EXPECT THE EXTENT OF FLURRIES TO WANE, ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
POCONOS AND INTO FAR NW NJ. SCATTERED FLURRIES CONTINUE AROUND  
THE REGION, BUT EXPECT THE EXTENT OF FLURRIES TO WANE,  
ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO  
WEAKEN. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP IN THESE LOCATIONS TO MATCH  
CURRENT TRENDS.  

NEW JERSEY REGIONAL WEEK AHEAD TEMPERATURES

 BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY

NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY 

NJ REGIONAL SAINT PATRICKS DAY FORECAST

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN   
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE   
TODAY AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS IN WNW FLOW. 

EXPECT   HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND   50 IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING IN THE MID   40S. WNW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY AND EXPECT CLOUD   
COVER TO BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING ALTOCUMULUS LATE  
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  
  

Friday, March 15, 2019

7 PM TEMPERATURES....NJ MAX TEMPERATURES AND RECORD REPORTS ....FRIDAY IDES OF MARCH 15, 2019


RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TRENTON NJ  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES WAS SET AT TRENTON NJ TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 72 SET IN 2002.  

STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS NORTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...SOUTHERN WARREN AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS  
  
NORTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...SOUTHERN WARREN AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON  
COUNTIES...  
  
AT 652 PM EDT, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ALPHA, OR NEAR  
EASTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH   
THIS STORM.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
EASTON, FORKS, HACKETTSTOWN, WILSON, WASHINGTON, HARMONY, OXFORD,  
ALPHA, GLEN GARDNER, HAMPTON, WEST EASTON, CALIFON, BLOOMSBURY,  
GLENDON, BRASS CASTLE, LONG VALLEY, GREAT MEADOWS-VIENNA,  
ALLAMUCHY-PANTHER VALLEY, PLEASANT VALLEY AND ROXBURG.  
  
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING, AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.   
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
  
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.  
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE  
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.  

CONVECTION HAS FIRED, WITH MAIN LINE IN EASTERN PA AND INTO NJ. THE ACTIVITY IS TRAINING AND MOVING NE.

CONVECTION HAS FIRED, WITH MAIN LINE IN EASTERN PA AND INTO NJ.  
THE ACTIVITY IS TRAINING AND MOVING NE. HRRR IS HAS BEEN  
REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH WAS TOO FAR EAST WITH THIS PROGGED  
CONVECTIVE LINE EARLIER IN THE DAY COMPARED TO CURRENT RADAR.  
  
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE IS ANALYZED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS  
AND LAPS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS NJ.  
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST IN TIME THIS   
EVENING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  
MOVE ACROSS NYC METRO AROUND 00Z, THEN WEAKEN AS IT WORKS   
ACROSS A MORE STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND   
LONG ISLAND, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT MENTION OF THUNDER.  
  
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AROUND 00Z,   
THROUGH THE CITY AROUND 03Z, AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN 140 KT   
UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING   
WHICH MAY INCREASE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE   
WIDESPREAD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AFTER 00Z   
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL   
EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BRING CLEARING   
SKIES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE.   

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH UPTICK TO NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY


Thursday, March 14, 2019

WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE TRI STATE AREA

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS  
IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA,  
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NEARLY STEADY  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  
  
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH  
OF THE DAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY  
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DESPITE  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS  
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH  
OF NEW YORK CITY, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, AND THE LOWER HUDSON  
VALLEY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THE MIDDLE OF MARCH.   
  
SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MUCH MORE  
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  

NATIONAL 6-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2019 

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN VERY  
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN IN THE 6-10 DAY TIME RANGE  
OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS PREDICTED,  
WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, A TROUGH FROM THE  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN PACIFIC,  
AND ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A WEAK TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE, WITH THIS TROUGH OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO/BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. ENSEMBLE SPREAD (5760 M) IS  
CONSIDERED LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE DOMAIN. 

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD  
TO THE PACIFIC COAST, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ALASKA. THIS IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHLY  
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH  
AMERICA, AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. FOR WESTERN ALASKA, THE PROXIMITY OF A  
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SOUTHEASTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW SUPPORT ELEVATED ODDS OF  
UPPER TERTILE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF A  
LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO THE NATION'S  
CAPITAL. PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 60% ARE DEPICTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.  
THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. RESIDUAL AREAS OF LINGERING ANOMALOUS COLD ARE DEPICTED  
OVER MAINE, AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE  
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE TOOL, THE TEMPERATURE  
CONSOLIDATION TOOL, AND REFORECAST ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE  
TOOLS. 

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER ALASKA DOWNSTREAM OF A 500-HPA  
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, DUE TO THE EXPECTED  
PROXIMITY OF A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND THE FORECAST PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM (EARLY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD). PROBABILITY VALUES EXCEED 60% FOR  
UPPER-TERCILE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER TERCILE  
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, THE  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,   
AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS RELATED TO THE PREDICTED INFLUX OF  
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% FOR  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TO CENTRAL NEW  
MEXICO. FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING CONUS, THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF  
LOWER-TERCILE PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ANTICYCLONIC  
CURVATURE ALOFT AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE  
6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOL,  
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL, AND REFORECAST ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 

THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY, AND GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE SURFACE  
TOOLS. 

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2019  

ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR  
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE COMPARED WITH THE  
6-10 DAY TIME FRAME. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA CIRCULATION FORECAST DEPICTS EASTWARD  
PROPAGATION OF A TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND OF ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR  
THE EAST COAST. 

A MAJOR TEMPERATURE PATTERN CHANGE (FROM THE PAST 30 DAYS) IS LIKELY TO OCCUR  
DURING WEEK-2, WITH A WARMING TREND ACROSS A LARGE FRACTION OF THE CONUS. ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AND FROM ABOUT THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA  
BORDER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR ALASKA. THESE AREAS OF  
FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED  
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,  
INCREASING 500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND MORE PACIFIC FLOW. SOUTHEASTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW  
AT LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE ALASKA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURE PATTERN. THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF LOWER TERCILE TEMPERATURES FROM  
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS (INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING  
TROUGH), AND MOST OF FLORIDA (LINGERING REMNANTS OF A COOLER PATTERN). A  
SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE CONUS IS FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES,  
DUE IN PART TO AN EXPECTED OVERALL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND, AND ALSO TO  
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DURING WEEK-2. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS BASED ON  
THE AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND REFORECAST ECMWF AND GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE TOOLS. 

INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND ALASKA. INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE, LOWERING  
500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND INCOMING PACIFIC MOISTURE ARE ALL ANTICIPATED TO BRING AN  
INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2. A RELATIVELY  
WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR ALASKA, DOWNSTREAM OF THE BERING SEA  
AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE NEAR  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS BASED ON  
THE AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AND REFORECAST ECMWF AND  
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, BUT INCREASING  
DISPARITY IN THE DAILY DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS DURING THE WEEK-2  
PERIOD.