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Wednesday, October 23, 2019

NATIONAL FORECAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK....WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...


WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...

SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PLEASANT FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE
A RETURN TO THE EASTERN U.S. AFTER THE RAIN FROM THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY.
 A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS ESTABLISHING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  A
SECOND COLD FRONT REACHES THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MEXICO BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND EVEN WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO
OKLAHOMA, AND RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING COULD REACH UP TO
THREE INCHES IN PLACES.  PARTS OF THIS REGION HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND THEREFORE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, OWING TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT FORECAST SPREAD IS MORE THAN NORMAL.
THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SPLITTING OF THE FLOW JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLOWLY MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK THAT GETS PICKED BACK UP INTO THE FLOW
AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST/WEST. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEFS HAVE BEEN
THE QUICKEST SHOW THE LEAST FLOW SEPARATION FOR DAYS. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES REMAIN THE LEAST
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW THE MOST SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATION. UPSTREAM
FLOW AMPLITUDE, WAVELENGTH SPACING, GUIDANCE TRENDS AND WPC
CONTINUITY FAVOR A SOLUTION MOST IN LINE WITH THIS LATTER GROUP OF
GUIDANCE. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED
FROM A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
BY NEXT SUN-WED, AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG ALASKAN
STORM SHOULD FAVOR ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING JUST EAST OF SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN. THIS SEEMS TO AGAIN
FAVOREDECMWF ENSEMBLES GIVEN THE LEAD-IN PATTERN AND ITS TYPICALLY
BETTER HANDLING OF AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE GEFS AT LONGER TIME
FRAMES.

...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

A FAVORED SLOWER EVOLUTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY ALLOWS FOR A LONGER AND CONTINUED LEAD FETCH OF
DEEP/TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE OH VALLEY WITH THE MAIN
SUPPORTING/EJECTING SYSTEM TRENDING MORE NORTHEASTWARD THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE. THIS OCCURS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS
THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AND WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS RIDGING TO ITS EAST AND AS A STRONGER FRONT TO ITS
WEST LARGELY ABSORBS/OVERTAKES IT. IN THE WEST, INCOMING COLD
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY CUT OFF FROM
THE MOISTURE SUPPLY BUT WILL STILL MANAGE TO SPREAD MODERATE
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOWS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
N-CENTRAL ROCKIES AS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FETCH. RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL U.S. WITH SLOW SYSTEM PROGRESSION AND EMERGENCE INTO THE
PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE IN THE WEST
BEHIND THE LEAD COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
10-25 DEG F BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY ALONG/EAST OF
THE DIVIDE FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO AS THE FRONT
WHOOSHES SOUTHWARD. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

NJ COCORAHS RAINFALL TUESDAY OCTOBER 22, 2019





Monday, October 21, 2019

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE LOCAL TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE  
NORTHEAST WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY BUILDING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW   
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS,   
TO NEAR 50 CLOSER TO THE COAST.   
  
SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM  
WEST TO EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA.   
SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO PERIODS OF RAIN BY THE EVENING   
WHICH LINGERS INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  
  
SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN   
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND   
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.  

FOLIAGE REPORT FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 21, 2019 PLUS LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME





SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-  
STATE AREA TODAY. LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LEAVING  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. LOWS   
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO THE   
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY   
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN   
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.   
  
THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN  
DURING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN  
OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS   
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.   
RAINFALL OF 1/3 TO 3/4 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. 

NJ COCORAHS RAINFALL SUNDAY OCTOBER 20, 2019





Friday, October 18, 2019

NEW JERSEY NOVEMBER HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGY....THE NORMAL AVERAGE CLIMATOLOGICAL COOLDOWN CONTINUES





POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY


POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...



----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
24.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H).  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, AND A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS THEN
ANTICIPATED. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
AGAIN IN A FEW HOURS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE POSSIBLE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE.  THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

INDIAN PASS FL TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FL...3 TO 5 FT
CHASSAHOWITZKA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FL...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

WIND:  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATER TODAY, MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS,
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY.



NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-
WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S WILL RESULT IN
  FROST FORMATION.

* WHERE...IN NEW JERSEY, PASSAIC AND WESTERN BERGEN. IN NEW YORK,
  ORANGE, PUTNAM, ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER. IN SOUTHERN
  CONNECTICUT, NORTHERN FAIRFIELD, NORTHERN NEW HAVEN, NORTHERN
  MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW LONDON.

* WHEN...FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...FROST COULD KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION IF LEFT
  UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE COLD.


HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HARTFORD, WINDSOR LOCKS, UNION, VERNON,
PUTNAM, WILLIMANTIC, TAUNTON, BROCKTON, FOSTER, SMITHFIELD,
COVENTRY, AND WEST GREENWICH

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 33 WILL RESULT IN FROST
  FORMATION.

* WHERE...IN CONNECTICUT, HARTFORD CT, TOLLAND CT AND WINDHAM CT
  COUNTIES. IN MASSACHUSETTS, NORTHERN BRISTOL MA AND WESTERN
  PLYMOUTH MA COUNTIES. IN RHODE ISLAND, NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI
  AND WESTERN KENT RI COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS
  OF HARTFORD, WINDSOR LOCKS, UNION, VERNON, PUTNAM, WILLIMANTIC,
  TAUNTON, BROCKTON, FOSTER, SMITHFIELD, COVENTRY, AND WEST
  GREENWICH.

* WHEN...FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...FROST COULD KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION IF
  LEFT UNCOVERED.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS
  FROM THE COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE COLD.


SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, WASHINGTON, MORRISTOWN,
FLEMINGTON, SOMERVILLE, READING, ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, EASTON,
COLLEGEVILLE, POTTSTOWN, CHALFONT, AND PERKASIE

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
  EARLY SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION.

* WHERE...IN NEW JERSEY, SUSSEX, WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON AND
  SOMERSET COUNTIES. IN PENNSYLVANIA, BERKS, LEHIGH,
  NORTHAMPTON, WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND UPPER BUCKS COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...FROST COULD KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION IF
  LEFT UNCOVERED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE COLD.


SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OAKVILLE, GAYLORDSVILLE, NEW MILFORD,
TERRYVILLE, THOMASTON, SCHENECTADY, ROTTERDAM, BURNT HILLS,
BALLSTON SPA, MECHANICVILLE, CLIFTON PARK, WATERFORD, ALBANY,
TROY, CATSKILL, COXSACKIE, ATHENS, CAIRO, JEFFERSON HEIGHTS,
HUDSON, KINGSTON, NEW PALTZ, POUGHKEEPSIE, BEACON, AND ARLINGTON
300 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 TO 36 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN
  FROST FORMATION.

* WHERE...IN CONNECTICUT, SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IN NEW
  YORK, EASTERN SCHENECTADY, SOUTHERN SARATOGA, EASTERN ALBANY,
  WESTERN RENSSELAER, EASTERN GREENE, WESTERN COLUMBIA, EASTERN
  ULSTER AND WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...FROST COULD KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION IF
  LEFT UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE COLD.


ACTIVE NATIONAL WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK


HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE WEST AND ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TROPICS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. BEGINNING TODAY AFTER THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND
LIGHTER WINDS BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE TROPICS ARE MAKING HEADLINES AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WITH
THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY MORNING. 
FROM THERE IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE IN FORWARD MOTION AND THEN BECOME
POST TROPICAL AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AS A RESULT, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHES WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., A SERIES OF PACIFIC FRONTS CROSSING
THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM THE CASCADES TO THE COLORADO
ROCKIES, WITH UP TO TWO FEET POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND THE
WESTERN WYOMING RANGES.  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AS A STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN PLACE.

UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STORM...
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN TO THREATEN THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE CASCADES TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...


...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

AN AMPLIFIED AND GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES NEXT
WEEK. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED
FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN A PATTERN WITH
ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST PREDICTABILITY, ALBEIT WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH
TRACK/INTERACTION OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN AS PER
NHC. SWITCHED TO QUITE COMPATABLE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE LATER NEXT WEEK IN A PERIOD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
FORECAST SPREAD, BUT WITH A PATTERN EVOLUTION OFFERING AT LEAST
AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY GIVEN DECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUITY AND SYSTEM
ORGANIZATIONS.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. DEEP SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO RAMP
UP WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER/WRAP-BACK SNOW WHILE ALSO FORCING A
LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN TO COMBINE
WITH UPPER SUPPORT TO FUEL A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN/CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL STATES. ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHEAST MAY BE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY
INTERACTION/MERGING WITH A MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND
EXTRATROPICAL COASTAL LOW AND DEEPENED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CURRENT POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN.

THE PATTERN MEANWHILE RELOADS UPSTREAM AS UPPER IMPULSES/JET
ENERGIES/HEIGHT FALLS WORK PROGRESSIVELY INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK THAT CARVE OUT ANOTHER
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH MID-LATER NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF SYSTEMS/FRONTAL PASSAGES OFFER A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM THE CASCADES TO NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SWEEP DOWN THROUGH THE INTERIOR
WEST/ROCKIES THEN CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME 10-15
DEGRESS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE N-CENTRAL STATES AS THE POST-FRONTAL
HIGH SURGES SOUTHWARD. LEAD GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS MAY FUEL ENHANCED
RAIN/CONVECTION, WITH MODEST PRECIPITATION INLAND OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL STATES INCLUDING SOME THREAT OF WRAPPING SNOWS FOR A
COOLING UPPER MIDWEST.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

NJ COCORAHS NOR'EASTER RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16-THURSDAY OCTOBER 17, 2019





SHORT TERM FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TO THE NORTH  
THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.   
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN THESE TWO  
SYSTEMS. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN  
ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO  
AROUND 60 UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A  
SCATTERED SHOWER, MAINLY TO THE NORTH, BUT ANY SHOWER WILL REMAIN  
LIGHT.  
  
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. WINDS  
WILL STILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AT  
NIGHT.   
  
DRY WEATHER THEN REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT   
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

LOCAL STORM REPORTS ...WIND AND RAIN TOTALS...STORM DAMAGE...PLUS ARCHIVED NY AND NJ DOPPLER RADAR FOR OCTOBER 16, 2019 NOR'EASTER


..PRECIPITATION REPORTS  
  
LOCATION                     AMOUNT    TIME/DATE       PROVIDER               
   
..DELAWARE  
  
   
..NEW CASTLE COUNTY  
  
CLAYMONT                     1.94 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
WILMINGTON                   1.87 IN   0951 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
BELLEVUE HILLS               1.79 IN   1006 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BROOKSIDE                    1.78 IN   1000 PM 10/16   COOP                   
WILMINGTON                   1.59 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
WILMINGTON (ST. EDMONS)      1.58 IN   1009 PM 10/16   URBANET                
BLACKBIRD                    1.54 IN   0909 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
WILMINGTON                   1.51 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..MARYLAND  
  
   
..CAROLINE COUNTY  
  
TUCKAHOE                     1.54 IN   0916 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
   
..KENT COUNTY  
  
STILL POND                   1.65 IN   0956 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTY  
  
GRASONVILLE                  1.66 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..TALBOT COUNTY  
  
EASTON                       1.84 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
SAINT MICHAELS               1.73 IN   1007 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..NEW JERSEY  
  
   
..BURLINGTON COUNTY  
  
WESTAMPTON                   2.23 IN   1004 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MOUNT HOLLY                  1.98 IN   0954 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
LUMBERTON                    1.87 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MEDFORD TWP.                 1.81 IN   0900 PM 10/16   HADS                   
2.8 W SHAMONG                1.80 IN   0945 PM 10/16   HADS                   
TABERNACLE                   1.79 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MEDFORD                      1.77 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
NEW LISBON                   1.76 IN   0900 PM 10/16   HADS                   
MOUNT LAUREL TOWNSHIP        1.75 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
COYLE FIELD                  1.63 IN   0910 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
MEDFORD VILLAGE              1.60 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BORDENTOWN                   1.55 IN   1002 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..CAMDEN COUNTY  
  
VOORHEES                     1.60 IN   1006 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BLUE ANCHOR                  1.51 IN   0910 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
   
..CUMBERLAND COUNTY  
  
VINELAND                     2.49 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MILLVILLE                    1.71 IN   0954 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
1.3 S GREENWICH TWP.         1.67 IN   0930 PM 10/16   HADS                   
   
..GLOUCESTER COUNTY  
  
WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP          2.00 IN   0950 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MICKLETON                    1.66 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
TURNERSVILLE                 1.62 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..HUNTERDON COUNTY  
  
LEBANON                      2.53 IN   1027 PM 10/16   TRAINED SPOTTER        
CLINTON                      2.12 IN   0815 PM 10/16   HADS                   
MILFORD                      1.93 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
TEETERTOWN                   1.82 IN   0910 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
HIGH BRIDGE                  1.75 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
ASBURY                       1.62 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
GLEN GARDNER                 1.54 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
RINGOES                      1.50 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..MIDDLESEX COUNTY  
  
AVENEL                       1.54 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
CARTERET                     1.50 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..MONMOUTH COUNTY  
  
ABERDEEN                     1.88 IN   0930 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MATAWAN                      1.77 IN   1003 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
KEYPORT                      1.75 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..MORRIS COUNTY  
  
DENVILLE                     2.55 IN   1003 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
2.1 NE LONG VALLEY           2.54 IN   0900 PM 10/16   HADS                   
0.9 SE BOONTON               2.32 IN   0945 PM 10/16   COOP                   
MINE HILL                    2.15 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MORRISTOWN                   2.13 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
LONG VALLEY                  2.10 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
0.8 N LANDING                2.06 IN   0945 PM 10/16   IFLOWS                 
RANDOLPH                     1.98 IN   1006 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
1.8 S SUCCASUNNA             1.96 IN   0900 PM 10/16   HADS                   
2.2 SW DENVILLE              1.96 IN   0900 PM 10/16   IFLOWS                 
1 SSW FOX HILL               1.95 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
0.9 W WHARTON                1.92 IN   0900 PM 10/16   IFLOWS                 
POMPTON PLAINS               1.89 IN   1007 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MONTVILLE                    1.84 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
1.4 NW FLORHAM PARK          1.84 IN   0930 PM 10/16   IFLOWS                 
SUCCASUNNA                   1.81 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
WHIPPANY (MEMORIAL)          1.75 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
3.7 S JEFFERSON TWP          1.75 IN   0900 PM 10/16   HADS                   
FLANDERS (MONT OLIVE HS)     1.73 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
SUCCASUNNA                   1.63 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
1.3 N PLEASANT PLAINS        1.60 IN   0945 PM 10/16   IFLOWS                 
LINCOLN PARK                 1.59 IN   0815 PM 10/16   HADS                   
FLANDERS                     1.57 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..OCEAN COUNTY  
  
WHITING                      2.00 IN   1002 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
JACKSON                      1.67 IN   0910 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
JACKSON                      1.55 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..SALEM COUNTY  
  
PENNSVILLE                   1.51 IN   1002 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
0.6 S WOODSTOWN              1.51 IN   0800 PM 10/16   HADS                   
   
..SOMERSET COUNTY  
  
1.4 N FAR HILLS              2.08 IN   0900 PM 10/16   IFLOWS                 
1.1 W SOUTH BOUND BROOK      1.99 IN   0900 PM 10/16   IFLOWS                 
SOMERVILLE                   1.67 IN   0915 PM 10/16   HADS                   
SOMERVILLE                   1.50 IN   0953 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
   
..SUSSEX COUNTY  
  
2.1 E BARRY LAKES            2.92 IN   0945 PM 10/16   HADS                   
0.7 NE FLATBROOKVILLE        2.78 IN   1000 PM 10/16   HADS                   
BLUE MOUNTAIN LAKES          2.45 IN   0914 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
SUSSEX                       2.44 IN   1009 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
ANDOVER                      2.28 IN   0954 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
GLENWOOD                     2.27 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
2.3 N STOCKHOLM              2.16 IN   0915 PM 10/16   HADS                   
1 SW HOPATCONG               2.14 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
SPARTA                       2.05 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
LAFAYETTE                    1.91 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
HOPATCONG                    1.91 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
SUSSEX                       1.90 IN   1007 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
WALLKILL RIVER NWR           1.86 IN   0926 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
FRANKLIN                     1.65 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..WARREN COUNTY  
  
ALLAMUCHY                    2.31 IN   1007 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
HACKETTSTOWN                 2.19 IN   1009 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BELVIDERE                    2.14 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
RIEGELSVILLE                 2.04 IN   0900 PM 10/16   COOP                   
   
..PENNSYLVANIA  
  
   
..BERKS COUNTY  
  
FLEETWOOD                    2.64 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MERTZTOWN                    2.02 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
HOPEWELL                     1.85 IN   0927 PM 10/16   RAWS                   
HARLEM                       1.83 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
READING                      1.82 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
SINKING SPRING               1.81 IN   1003 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
0.6 E WEST READING           1.78 IN   0900 PM 10/16   HADS                   
OLEY                         1.77 IN   1007 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
READING                      1.71 IN   1009 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
1.8 W BERN TWP               1.68 IN   0900 PM 10/16   COOP                   
READING                      1.62 IN   0954 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
MOHNTON 0.1 SW               1.58 IN   0530 PM 10/16   COCORAHS               
READING                      1.57 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
READING                      1.54 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BERNVILLE (TULPENHOCKEN)     1.52 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
READING (MIFFLIN)            1.52 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
   
..BUCKS COUNTY  
  
QUAKERTOWN                   2.19 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
SELLERSVILLE                 2.04 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
QUAKERTOWN                   1.97 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
CHALFONT                     1.78 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BUCKINGHAM                   1.70 IN   1002 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
HOLLAND                      1.67 IN   1006 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
FURLONG                      1.63 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
FEASTERVILLE-TREVOSE (POQUES 1.52 IN   1009 PM 10/16   URBANET                
   
..CARBON COUNTY  
  
PALMERTON                    2.30 IN   1100 PM 10/16   PUBLIC                 
JIM THORPE                   1.85 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
0.9 SW BLAKESLEE             1.69 IN   0915 PM 10/16   HADS                   
LANSFORD                     1.52 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
   
..CHESTER COUNTY  
  
ATGLEN                       1.95 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
NORTH COVENTRY TWP           1.82 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
WEST CHESTER                 1.75 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
COATESVILLE                  1.71 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
POTTSTOWN                    1.69 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
1.4 N MARSHALLTON            1.69 IN   0915 PM 10/16   HADS                   
SADSBURYVILLE                1.68 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
DOWNINGTOWN                  1.66 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
POTTSTOWN                    1.65 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
1.4 S MARSHALLTON            1.64 IN   0915 PM 10/16   HADS                   
SPRING CITY                  1.62 IN   1007 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
CHADDS FORD                  1.54 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
OXFORD                       1.52 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
2.4 N AVONDALE               1.51 IN   0700 PM 10/16   HADS                   
   
..DELAWARE COUNTY  
  
CHADDS FORD TWP              1.74 IN   0930 PM 10/16   HADS                   
THORNTON                     1.51 IN   1006 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..LEHIGH COUNTY  
  
CATASAUQUA                   2.51 IN   1000 PM 10/16   PUBLIC                 
LEHIGH VALLEY INTL AIRPORT   2.33 IN   0951 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
NORTH WHITEHALL TWP          2.32 IN   0906 PM 10/16   TRAINED SPOTTER        
WHITEHALL                    2.09 IN   1009 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MACUNGIE                     2.04 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
WASHINGTON TWP               1.81 IN   0400 AM 10/17   TRAINED SPOTTER        
NEW TRIPOLI                  1.75 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BREINIGSVILLE                1.57 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..MONROE COUNTY  
  
SNYDERSVILLE                 2.26 IN   1004 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
EAST STROUDSBURG             2.24 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
SAYLORSBURG                  2.10 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
MT. POCONO                   1.96 IN   0953 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
TANNERSVILLE                 1.80 IN   1010 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BLAKESLEE                    1.68 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
SWIFTWATER                   1.56 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
   
..MONTGOMERY COUNTY  
  
WILLOW GROVE                 1.95 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
PHILLY WINGS F               1.91 IN   0955 PM 10/16   AWOS                   
GILBERTSVILLE                1.80 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
NEW HANOVER                  1.79 IN   1009 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
AMBLER                       1.67 IN   0903 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
POTTSTOWN (HS)               1.65 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
NEW HANOVER TWP              1.64 IN   0809 PM 10/16   PUBLIC                 
WILLOW GROVE                 1.59 IN   1000 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
POTTSTOWN                    1.59 IN   0954 PM 10/16   ASOS                   
LOWER MORELAND TWP           1.57 IN   1010 PM 10/16   URBANET                
ROYERSFORD (ES)              1.57 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
FORT WASHINGTON              1.55 IN   1003 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
NORTH HILLS                  1.51 IN   1008 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
ROYERSFORD (EVANS)           1.50 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
COLLEGEVILLE                 1.50 IN   1001 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
   
..NORTHAMPTON COUNTY  
  
PALMER TOWNSHIP              2.73 IN   1009 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
BETHLEHEM TWP                2.13 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
BETHLEHEM                    2.05 IN   1007 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
EASTON                       1.98 IN   1005 PM 10/16   CWOP                   
NAZARETH (MS)                1.77 IN   1009 PM 10/16   AWS                    
NORTHAMPTON (MS)             1.64 IN   1010 PM 10/16   AWS                    
   
..PHILADELPHIA COUNTY  
  
PHILADELPHIA NE              1.74 IN   0954 PM 10/16   ASOS                   


   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0919 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW FORT WASHINGTON   40.13N 75.22W  
10/16/2019                   MONTGOMERY         PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL    
  
            LARGE TREE BLOCKING LAFAYETTE AVENUE.   
  
0838 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N MONTGOMERYVILLE     40.27N 75.24W  
10/16/2019                   MONTGOMERY         PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL    
  
            TREE DOWN ON RICHARDSON ROAD NEAR BROAD   
            ACRES ROAD.   
  
0847 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE LANDENBERG        39.79N 75.72W  
10/16/2019                   CHESTER            PA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS   
  
            DOWNED TREE ON STATE HIGHWAY 41 BETWEEN   
            SKYVIEW LANE AND LIMESTONE ROAD.   
  
0921 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BLAIRSTOWN              40.98N 75.00W  
10/16/2019                   WARREN             NJ   COUNTY OFFICIAL    
  
            DOWNED TREE ON ROUTE 94 NEAR LAMBERT ROAD.   
  
0911 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW BEACH HAVEN        39.54N 74.26W  
10/16/2019  M59 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   MESONET            
  
            CWOP SENSOR.   
  
0901 PM     FLOOD            1 SE NETCONG            40.89N 74.70W  
10/16/2019                   MORRIS             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS   
  
            FLOODING ON THE INTERSTATE 80 WESTBOUND RAMP   
            TO EXIT 27. LANE RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE.   
  
0858 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MILLINGTON              40.68N 74.52W  
10/16/2019                   MORRIS             NJ   PUBLIC             
  
            MPING REPORT OF MINOR TREE DAMAGE AT THIS   
            LOCATION.   
  
0825 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE CORDOVA           38.89N 75.98W  
10/16/2019                   TALBOT             MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS   
  
            WIND-BLOWN DEBRIS ON STATE HIGHWAY 303 AT   
            DUKES BRIDGE ROAD.   

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
SPOTTER REPORTS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
503 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2019  
  
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 27  
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION  
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS, COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN  
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY ALSO IS AVAILABLE  
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC  
  
***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************  
  
LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                     
                        GUST            OF   
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT  
  
CONNECTICUT  
   
..FAIRFIELD COUNTY  
  
   GREENWICH               58  1215 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      54   148 AM 10/17  ASOS                      
   STAMFORD                41   912 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   BRIDGEPORT              40   848 PM 10/16  NOS-NWLON                 
   
..NEW HAVEN COUNTY  
  
   HAMMONASSET             45  1035 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   MERIDEN AIRPORT         44   152 AM 10/17  ASOS                      
   NEW HAVEN               44   157 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   WATERBURY AIRPORT       43   225 AM 10/17  AWOS                      
   LIGHTHOUSE POINT        42  1106 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   
..NEW LONDON COUNTY  
  
   GROTON AIRPORT          60  1206 AM 10/17  ASOS                      
  
NEW JERSEY  
   
..BERGEN COUNTY  
  
   TETERBORO AIRPORT       43  1111 PM 10/16  ASOS                      
   
..ESSEX COUNTY  
  
   CALDWELL                44  1022 PM 10/16  ASOS                      
   
..PASSAIC COUNTY  
  
   3 ENE WEST MILFORD      40  1225 AM 10/17  AWOS                      
   
..UNION COUNTY  
  
   NEWARK AIRPORT          48  1110 PM 10/16  ASOS                      
   UNION                   42  1047 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
  
NEW YORK  
   
..KINGS COUNTY  
  
   MANHATTAN BEACH         49   530 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   
..NASSAU COUNTY  
  
   NORTH MERRICK           49  1200 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   0.8 NW UNIONDALE (WE    48  1200 AM 10/17  MESOWEST                  
   MASSAPEQUA PARK         46  1201 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   MERRICK                 46  1220 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   CARLE PLACE             40  1139 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   MUTTONTOWN              40  1205 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   
..ORANGE COUNTY  
  
   STEWART AIRPORT         41  1145 PM 10/16  AWOS                      
   
..QUEENS COUNTY  
  
   BREEZY POINT            76  1152 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   NYC/LA GUARDIA          55  1132 PM 10/16  ASOS                      
   NYC/JFK AIRPORT         52  1114 PM 10/16  ASOS                      
   JACKSON HEIGHTS         48   107 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   
..RICHMOND COUNTY  
  
   2 SE ELIZABETH          55  1042 PM 10/16  NDBC                      
   
..SUFFOLK COUNTY  
  
   STONY BROOK             83   101 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   EATONS NECK             65  1220 AM 10/17  WXFLOW                    
   GREAT GULL ISLAND       64  1154 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   FISHERS ISLAND AIRPO    61  1202 AM 10/17  WXFLOW                    
   ORIENT                  59   902 PM 10/16  TRAINED SPOTTER           
   BAITING HOLLOW          59   145 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   FIRE ISLAND CG          57   937 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   NAPEAGUE                56  1140 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   ORIENT                  56  1015 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   BLUE POINT              55   935 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   ISLIP AIRPORT           55   123 AM 10/17  ASOS                      
   FARMINGDALE AIRPORT     54  1208 AM 10/17  ASOS                      
   WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT     51   902 PM 10/16  ASOS                      
   SHIRLEY AIRPORT         51   127 AM 10/17  ASOS                      
   BROOKHAVEN              50   946 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   EASTPORT                50   128 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   MECOX BAY               49   915 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   GREAT SOUTH BAY         49   955 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   WEST GILGO BEACH        48  1230 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   SOUTHOLD                48   146 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   SINAI HARBOR            47   959 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   ORIENT                  43  1004 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   WEST ISLIP              43  1229 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   EAST HAMPTON            43   315 AM 10/17  AWOS                      
   CUTCHOGUE               42   942 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   EAST NORTHPORT          41  1227 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   STONY BROOK             41  1015 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   CUTCHOGUE               40   933 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   MILLER PLACE            40   955 PM 10/16  CWOP                      
   N. BABYLON              40  1240 AM 10/17  CWOP                      
   
..WESTCHESTER COUNTY  
  
   WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT    55  1154 PM 10/16  ASOS                      
   TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14     54  1141 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
   CROTON                  50  1139 PM 10/16  WXFLOW                    
  


   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0902 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ORIENT                  41.14N  72.30W  
10/16/2019  M59 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER   
  
1122 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BREEZY POINT            40.55N  73.93W  
10/16/2019  M64 MPH          QUEENS             NY   WXFLOW            
  
1142 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST FISHERS ISLAND AIRPORT  41.25N  72.03W  
10/16/2019  M58 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW            
  
1152 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BREEZY POINT            40.55N  73.93W  
10/16/2019  M76 MPH          QUEENS             NY   WXFLOW            
  
1154 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GREAT GULL ISLAND       41.20N  72.12W  
10/16/2019  M64 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW            
  
1202 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FISHERS ISLAND AIRPORT  41.25N  72.03W  
10/17/2019  M61 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW            
  
1206 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST GROTON AIRPORT          41.33N  72.05W  
10/17/2019  M60 MPH          NEW LONDON         CT   ASOS              
  
1215 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST GREENWICH               41.01N  73.57W  
10/17/2019  M58 MPH          FAIRFIELD          CT   MESONET           
  
1220 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EATONS NECK             40.95N  73.40W  
10/17/2019  M65 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW            
  
1225 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST STONY BROOK             40.91N  73.12W  
10/17/2019  M70 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET           
  
1255 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EATONS NECK             40.95N  73.40W  
10/17/2019  M60 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW            
  
0101 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST STONY BROOK             40.91N  73.12W  
10/17/2019  M83 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET           
  
0140 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BAITING HOLLOW          40.97N  72.71W  
10/17/2019  M59 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET           
  
0145 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BAITING HOLLOW          40.97N  72.71W  
10/17/2019  M59 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET           
  
0317 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BREEZY POINT            40.55N  73.93W  
10/17/2019  M65 MPH          QUEENS             NY   WXFLOW            
  
0344 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST GREAT GULL ISLAND       41.20N  72.12W  
10/17/2019  M59 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW            
  
0419 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST STONY BROOK             40.91N  73.12W  
10/17/2019  M72 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET