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Thursday, June 21, 2018

ANOTHER WEEKEND WITHOUT RAIN...WHATEVER FOR....WHY BREAK THE TREND?...AFTER ALL THE FIRST WEEKEND OF SUMMER MUST BE FILLED WITH MOISTURE....ARGH..!

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE   
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON   
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE   
LIKELY SUNDAY. A DRYING TREND COMMENCES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR   
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ONSHORE AT TIMES WILL   
MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES DOWN THE SHORE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF   
THE AREA, TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE   
PERIOD.  
  
SYNOPTICALLY, A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL   
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. THIS   
SETS THE STAGE FOR A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO   
SATURDAY, UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW   
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY TRAVERSE   
THE AREA ON MONDAY, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
  
FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA   
SCOTIA AND A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL   
PROMOTE AN OVERUNNING REGIME, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING A   
SOURCE OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE   
TO ENTER THE REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING   
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE NAM IS TOO DRY,   
AND THE ECMWF AND RGEM ARE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE   
SYNOPTIC SETUP SUPPORTS THE LATTER TWO SOLUTIONS, SO CONTINUED TO   
CONFINE CHC POPS SOUTHWEST OF THE I-42 TO I-476 CORRIDORS. WITH THE   
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY, CONTINUED A   
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MD AND DE DURING THE   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE THE SURFACE, A DEEP   
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT   
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES (1 TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE   
NORMAL) INTO THE REGION. EXPECT STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST NORTH   
OF THE WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH   
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE   
FLOODING. BY SATURDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE NORTH OF   
THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE I-276 TO I-95 AND I-78 CORRIDORS. NEAR AND   
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL   
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY   
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40   
KTS. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN, WITH SOUNDINGS   
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, ALBEIT WEAK. THEREFORE, STORMS   
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR   
THE WARM FRONT WHERE LCLS ARE LOWER WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR   
ROTATION, GIVEN MODERATE 0-1 KM SHEAR.  
  
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE  
COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST.  
  
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL   
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY   
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MONDAY ALONG WITH   
FALLING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL. BEYOND THIS   
TIME, A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM   
THE NORTH BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE   
TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. 

BUSY AVIATION FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND

TODAY...ONCE THE SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING,   
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE   
DAY. AT MOST TAF SITES, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NNE THROUGH THE   
DAY. HOWEVER, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND   
COULD AFFECT KACY AND KMIV, TURNING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY MID TO   
LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE SEA BREEZE, BUT HIGH   
CONFIDENCE ON THE OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.  
  
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD START AS VFR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE   
FOR MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT KACY AND KMIV AFTER 06Z. WINDS MAY   
START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, BUT SETTLE OUT OF THE   
EAST AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST AT MOST TAF SITES,   
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR KMIV AND KACY.  
  
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN   
SHRA. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACY AND PHL.   
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
  
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG WILL LEAD MVFR, WITH  
IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATE. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
LOW CONFIDENCE.  
  
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR, WITH VFR POSSIBLE   
BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY I-95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. BUT SHRA AND TSRA   
WILL LEAD TO BRIEF CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS.   
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
  
SATURDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG WITH   
MVFR, AND EVEN IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.   
LOW CONFIDENCE.  
  
SUNDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH A RETURN TO  
MAINLY VFR UNTIL A LATE DAY RISK OF STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF   
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
  
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH   
BRIEF CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE.  
  
MONDAY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY JUNE 21, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 11N. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W.

A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD, BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOVING W 20 KNOTS. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ITCZ.

A THIRD ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 11N 
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W 15 KNOTS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ITCZ.

A FOURTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 18N 
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W 10 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W
AND 61W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD, MOVING W 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE NW CORNER OF VENEZUELA AND 
PARTS OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W, TO 07N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 07N22W 06N40W 04N50W.
PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 23W AND 43W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND
PARTS OF NE MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE 
IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST, AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SE COAST
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE 
IN MEXICO FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. 

A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TOWARD THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, 
NUMEROUS RAINSHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST 
IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE NW 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WEAKENS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST WINDS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN  
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER, ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN 
SECTIONS OF CUBA, TO A NW CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER THAT IS 20N84W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N84W TO THE 
PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. EARLIER AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS WERE COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOME WEAKENING AND ALREADY- 
DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION, AND REMAINING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 09N TO 
18N BETWEEN 83W AND 92W IN SE MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND
NW COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

THE HISPANIOLA TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ON THURSDAY. THE 57W/58W TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE LESSER 
ANTILLES ON THURSDAY MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL STRENGTHEN
ON THURSDAY, AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 35N34W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER, THROUGH 32N50W, TO A SECOND ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N65W, ACROSS THE
SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CUBA, TO A NW CARIBBEAN SEA 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N84W. THE TROUGH 
CONTINUES FROM 20N84W, TO THE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS 
BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. EARLIER
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS WERE COVERING 
MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA SIX TO 8 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
CLOUDS FROM SOME WEAKENING AND ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION, 
AND REMAINING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 
92W IN SE MEXICO. PRECIPITATION: WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES 
AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W TO
THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 76W. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL BUILD 
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG 
E TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATERS S OF 23N ON SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
625 UTC THU JUN 21 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 05N NEAR 96.5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 
12N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. WESTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS WAVE HAS 
STARTED TO SLOW AS ANTICIPATED. THIS WAVE WILL BE ONE TO WATCH 
WITH INTEREST FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 14N106W TO 13N113W TO
07N122W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N122W TO 09N133W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N
TO 06N BETWEEN 122W AND 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

MODERATE NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TODAY. A PULSE OF NORTHERLY SWELL WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT 
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE 
INTO THE WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH
WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 7 FT BY SATURDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE FRIDAY, THEN
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND FRESH TO STRONG N OF 
29N BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY 
TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE. THE
WIND WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LIGHT BY MONDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 
TO 2 FT OR LESS.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 09N AND 11N THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAILING S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH 
THE WATERS W OF ECUADOR TODAY, WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 7 
TO 9 FT LATE FRI, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST 
WATERS, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT S OF 08N EARLY SAT. SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE ON SUN AND MON. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 12N115.5W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 120W. THIS LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK, THEN MAY SHIFT NE THEREAFTER WITH POSSIBLE DEEPENING.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N135W TO 05N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 135W 
AND 140W. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD, MOVING WEST OF 140W FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES 
PREVAIL WEST OF 120W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. SEAS
N OF 20N HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 6 FT. A FRESH PULSE OF NORTHERLY 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY, WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W FRIDAY. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 TO 9 FT 
SOUTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 90W LATE FRIDAY. SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
SWELL WILL START TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRST DAY OF SUMMER...RAIN EXITS WITH CLEARING....COOLER MARINE AIR MASS ON FRIDAY RESULTS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. THIS WILL  
ALLOW THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING,  
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, AND OVER THE GULF OF  
MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC  
AS EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE  
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.  

SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW YORK FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY FOR THURSDAY...

SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW YORK

FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY FOR
THURSDAY...


KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF CONEY ISLAND BEACH AND MANHATTAN BEACH

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW.
LIGHTNING THREAT....NONE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 2 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...9, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....65 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............CLOUDY UNTIL 2 PM, THEN PARTLY SUNNY UNTIL 5
                    PM, THEN SUNNY. PERIODS OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....AROUND 80.
WINDS...............NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS LOWER 70S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS MID 60S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT CONEY ISLAND...

HIGH TIDE AT 2:44 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:11 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 3:28 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:43 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS.
HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE
WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHERN QUEENS-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF JACOB RIIS PARK AND ROCKAWAY BEACH

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW.
LIGHTNING THREAT....NONE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 2 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...9, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....63 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 4 PM, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY.
                    PERIODS OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....UPPER 70S.
WINDS...............NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS UPPER 60S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH.

TIDES...

AT EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 2:41 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 8:56 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 3:24 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:35 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS.
HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE
WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHERN NASSAU-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF ATLANTIC BEACH, LONG BEACH, LIDO BEACH,
AND JONES BEACH


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW.
LIGHTNING THREAT....NONE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 2 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...9, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....62 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 4 PM, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY.
                    RAIN LIKELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....MID 70S.
WINDS...............NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 70.
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT JONES INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 2:28 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:03 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 3:12 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:35 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS.
HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE
WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF GILGO STATE PARK AND ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW.
LIGHTNING THREAT....NONE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 3 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...9, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....60 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 4 PM, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY.
                    PERIODS OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....MID 70S.
WINDS...............NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT FIRE ISLAND INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 2:09 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:01 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 2:53 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:33 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS.
HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE
WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF SMITH POINT, CUPSOGUE BEACH,
AND HITHER HILLS STATE PARK

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW.
LIGHTNING THREAT....NONE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 3 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...9, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....59 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............CLOUDY UNTIL 3 PM, THEN PARTLY SUNNY UNTIL 5
                    PM, THEN SUNNY. PERIODS OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....LOWER 70S.
WINDS...............EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS LOWER 60S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT SHINNECOCK INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 2:35 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 8:26 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 3:16 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 9:13 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS.
HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES
AND OTHER STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE
WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THU JUN 21 2018

SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THU JUN 21 2018


EASTERN MONMOUTH-

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 5 PM, THEN MOSTLY SUNNY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE UPPER 70S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET.
SURF TEMPERATURE....68 DEGREES.
SWELL...............LIGHT SWELLS.
PERIOD..............5 SECONDS.
WINDS...............NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT BELMAR...

LOW TIDE AT 8:43 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 2:57 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 9:15 PM...


COASTAL OCEAN-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE MID 70S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET.
SURF TEMPERATURE....69 DEGREES.
SWELL...............SOUTHEAST AROUND 2 FEET IN
THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT.
PERIOD..............5 SECONDS.
WINDS...............NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT BARNEGAT INLET...

LOW TIDE AT 9:27 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 3:30 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 9:54 PM...


COASTAL ATLANTIC-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE UPPER 70S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET.
SURF TEMPERATURE....69 DEGREES.
SWELL...............SOUTHEAST AROUND 2 FEET.
PERIOD..............5 SECONDS.
WINDS...............NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT ATLANTIC CITY...

LOW TIDE AT 9:00 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 3:25 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 9:30 PM...


ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE UPPER 70S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET.
SURF TEMPERATURE....69 DEGREES.
SWELL...............SOUTHEAST AROUND 2 FEET IN
THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT.
PERIOD..............5 SECONDS.
WINDS...............NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT CAPE MAY...

LOW TIDE AT 9:21 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 3:59 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 9:51 PM...


DELAWARE BEACHES-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE UPPER 70S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET.
SURF TEMPERATURE....72 DEGREES.
SWELL...............SOUTHEAST AROUND 2 FEET IN
THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT.
PERIOD..............5 SECONDS.
WINDS...............WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT REHOBOTH BEACH...

LOW TIDE AT 9:07 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 3:32 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 9:41 PM...

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS NOTED THIS EVENING WITH MY 2ND CALL OUT THIS AFTERNOON ON SOCIAL MEDIA FOR A NEARLY RAIN FREE ..DRY OUTSIDE GRADUATION CEREMONY CONTINUES IN TACT FOR MOST OF NJ.... IF NOT ALL..THE DELMARVA A DIFFERENT STORY


 OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS NOTED THIS EVENING WITH MY 2ND CALL OUT THIS AFTERNOON ON SOCIAL MEDIA FOR A NEARLY RAIN FREE ..DRY OUTSIDE GRADUATION CEREMONY CONTINUES IN TACT FOR MOST OF NJ.... IF NOT ALL..

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSH ACROSS   
THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN  
AND LOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED   
EVERYWHERE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.   
  
OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZING TO FAR NORTH WITH  
THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING, WHICH IS  
GIVING CONCERNS THAT THEIR QPF AXIS MAY BE DISPLACED TO FAR   
NORTH. THERE ARE INDICATION OF STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING   
DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT THIS EVENING, BUT   
BETTER LLJ FORCING, HIGHER PWATS (AROUND 2"), AND WEAK   
INSTABILITY ARE CLOSER TO NYC/NJ METRO/LI. THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT  
IN HEAVIER QPF TO LI/NYC/NJ METRO HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST   
COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC  
RAINS ACROSS LOWER HUD AND SOUTHERN CT.