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Monday, April 23, 2018

A CHILLY START WITH A FINE FINISH MONDAY IN NEW JERSEY TEMPERATURES

WE STARTED OUT CHILLIER THAN AVERAGE AND WENT ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL
ALL AND ALL A SPLENDID APRIL MONDAY IN NEW JERSEY ...AND I KNOW NO ONE IS COMPLAINING 




TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING RAINSTORM....HEAVY LOCALISED DOWNPOURS IN TIME FOR MORNING RUSH HOUR WEDNESDAY

Clouds Will Lower And Thicken On Tuesday As An Area Of Low 
Pressure To Our Southeast Approaches. Lack Of Sunshine Will Keep 
The Seasonably Cool Conditions Across The Region, With Highs In 
The Upper 50s To Lower 60s. 
 
Rain Will Affect The Region Tuesday Night Into The Middle Of The 
Week As The Low Continues Moving Toward The Area, With Moderate 
Rainfall By Wednesday Morning. Areas Of Fog And A Passing 
Thunderstorm Is Also Possible. Temperatures Should Continue To 
Average Below Normal. 
 
High Level Cloudiness Ahead Of The Low Will Very Slowly Work 
Northeast. Depending On How Fast The Clouds And Low Level 
Moisture Come In Could Result In Some Locations Cooling More 
Quickly Than Others With Some Patchy Fog As Well. 
 
Models Are In Good Overall Agreement In Taking Low Pressure 
Over The Tennessee Valley Northeast Through Wednesday, Taking 
The Low Near Or Just West Of Nyc Late Wednesday. The Ecmwf Is On 
The Slower Side Of The Guidance. 
 
Clouds Will Overspread The Area From The Sw During The Day With 
Light Overrunning Rains Developing From West To East In The 
Evening And Becoming Steadier Overnight. A Strong Low-level Jet 
Will Enhance Warm Advection Rains Toward Daybreak, With The 
Possibility Of A Thunderstorm During The Morning And Afternoon 
Hours. The Coverage Will Diminish In The Afternoon And May 
Become More Convective In Nature. Instability Aloft Though Is 
Marginal And Not Surface-based. 
 
Rainfall Totals Will Be Highest From Nyc And Points North And 
West Due To Orographic Enhancement With A Modest Se Flow. Gusts 
Up To 30 Mph Will Be Possible Along The Coast. Amounts Will 
Range Form 0.75 Inches Far Eastern Areas To 1.25 In The Hills 
North And West Of Nyc. Should The Upper Trough Become More 
Negatively Tilted Than Forecast, These Amounts Will Likely Need 
To Be Increased Due To More Offshore Convection And Warm 
Conveyor Belts Rains Working Into The Region 
 
Highs On Tuesday Will Be A Bit Cooler Due To The Cloud Cover 
And Onshore Flow, But Will Be Milder Tuesday Night For The Same 
Reason. Highs On Wednesday Will Be Similar. 
 




FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY RAIN GIVES WAY TO DRYER AND COOLER SUNDAY?? ALSO ...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN

Models Still Have Notable Spread In The Evolution Of The 
Above Mentioned Upper Midwest/great Lakes Trough, As Its Energy 
Splits N/s During The Mid To Late Week Period. Differences Exist In 
The Strength Of The Southern Energy That Splits Off, And With The 
Amplification Of The Northern Energy Over The Eastern Great Lakes 
And Northeast Wed Night/thu As It Phases With The Initial Southern 
Wave Moving Up The Coast. This Is Further Complicated By Differences 
In Evolution Of The Next Northern Stream Shortwave Diving Into The 
Central Us For Late Week, That Does A Similar Split. It Appears The 
Evolution Of The Northern Portion Of This Energy, And The 
Interaction (If Any), With The Southern Energy That Got Left Behind, 
Will Be A Key Determinant In Sensible Weather For Fri/sat. So A 
Complex Forecast To Say The Least. At This Point, It Appears 
There Is Potential For A Progressive Low Pressure Or Frontal 
System To Affect The Region During The Friday Or Saturday Time 
Period, But Predictability On Details Remains Low. Will Continue 
With Low Chance Of Showers In The Forecast During This Time To 
Denote The Potential.   





POLLEN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK

POLLEN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...LOWER WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY BACK UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....

FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY.....

Dew Points Were Quite Low On Sunday, Allowing Relative Humidity 
Values To Drop Well Below 30 Percent Across The Area For A 
Lengthy Period Of Time During The Afternoon. Though Winds Were 
Generally Light, The Combination Of Low Relative Humidity And 
Fairly Dry Fuels Allowed For The Development Of Some Wildfires. 
Similar Conditions Will Exist Today. Winds Will Be Below Red 
Flag Warning Thresholds, But Much Like Sunday, Sea And Bay 
Breezes Will Develop And Move Inland During The Day. As These 
Boundaries Pass, Winds May Shift And Increase Rather Suddenly. 
For Any Preexisting Fires, The Passage Of The Sea/bay Breezes 
May Cause Erratic Conditions Affecting Fire Growth/spread. 
 
Should Winds Be Stronger Than Projected, A Special Weather 
Statement Will Likely Be Required Indicating The Increased 
Potential For Wildfires.  

TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE THIS WEEK



A SOAKING RAIN WITH BREEZY E/SE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

Timing Differences Still Exist On Timing Of 
Heaviest Rain, During The Late Tuesday Night Into Wed Afternoon Time 
Period. Can't Rule Out An Isolated Thunderstorm Wed Morning Into 
Afternoon Along/ahead Of Approaching Warm Front With Weak Elevated 
Instability And Forcing From Approaching Shortwave Energy And 55-65 
Kt Se Llj. Most Operational Solutions Are Muted With The Development 
Of A Sub-tropical Wave, Keeping Rainfall To A 1/2 To 1 Inch Event. 
Meanwhile The Nam Is Denoting Potential For A Heavier Rainfall With 
A Stronger Wave And Sub-tropical Atlantic Moisture Inflow, Resulting 
In A 1 To 2 Inch Rainfall. This Interaction Will Have To Be 
Monitored Over The Next 24 To 36 Hrs, As The Nam May Be Resolving A 
Convectively Induced Wave Better Than Other Operational Guidance. In 
Any Case, Have Increased Qpf To 3/4 To 1 1/2 Inches Based On Upward 
Trend In Gefs And Sref Mean And Mode, And To Capture Potential For 
The Stronger Sub-tropical Connection Noted In The Nam. 
Interestingly, The Operational Gfs Is A The Bottom Of The Envelope 
Of Qpf Spread Of Gefs Members. Highest Qpf Amounts Are Favored 
Across Nyc Metro, Ne Nj, Lower Hudson Valley And Sw Ct With 
Orographic Lift Of Moist Se Inflow. Otherwise, Models In General 
Agreement With Best Forcing/moisture Move Ne Wed Afternoon Into Wed 
Eve, With Lingering Showers Wed Night, A Slower Trend Than 24 Hrs 
Ago.   


A Widespread 3/4 To 1 1/2 Inches Of Rain Is Likely Tuesday 
Night Into Wednesday, With Heaviest Amounts Favored Across Nyc 
Metro, Ne Nj, Lower Hudson Valley, And Sw Ct. Minor Urban And 
Poor Drainage Flooding Is Possible If High End Of Rainfall 
Ranges Are Realized. 
 
There Is A Low Potential For Up To 2 Inches Of Rain In The 
Above Mentioned Areas, Which Would Increase The Threat For 
Urban/poor Drainage Flooding, And Potentially Cause Some 
Localized Minor Small Stream Flood Impacts.