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Saturday, August 18, 2018

UNSETTLED NEW WEEK AHEAD

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONTS FORWARD PROGRESS STARTS  
TO SLOW DOWN BY SUNDAY AND THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST   
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR NOW, THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT JUST   
SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO WOBBLE A   
BIT AS IT REMAINS NEARBY THROUGH MONDAY.   
  
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY   
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A NOW VERY FAMILIAR AND   
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE WEEK. A CHANCE   
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE   
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2   
INCHES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT PWATS TO DECREASE SOME FOR MONDAY, DOWN TO   
AROUND 1.25-1.50 INCHES AS SOME DRIER AIR PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH   
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS   
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN FAIRLY WET AS WE HAVE NOT HAD VERY MANY   
DAYS WHERE SIGNIFICANT DRYING CAN OCCUR. SO THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN   
MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS OUR   
ALREADY SATURATED REGION.    
  
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE   
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT SOUTHWARD AND   
THAT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SUNDAY COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN OF LATE.   
HOWEVER, IT IS SHORT LIVED AS THE AIRMASS WILL START TO MODIFY AND   
WARM FOR MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY, SOME   
MID 80S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE   
STALLED BOUNDARY. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR   
MONDAY.   
  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO   
ORGANIZE OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT   
LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS THIS LOW MAKES ITS MOVE TOWARDS   
UPSTATE NEW YORK/EASTERN CANADA, IT WILL START TO PUSH THE STALLED   
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.   
  
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES   
THROUGH. HOWEVER, PWATS REMAIN HIGH AND THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT MAY   
BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL   
CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH TUESDAY.   
  
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA AND AS IT   
MOVES ALONG, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND THEN THROUGH OUR   
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION   
LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE   
PRIMARY COLD FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH   
THE SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE.   
  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO PUSH EASTWARD AND   
INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE END   
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE LOCATION   
OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE   
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OFFSHORE WHICH COULD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR   
SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS.  
  

ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA

ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AS SEVERAL  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  
  
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS   
MORNING, AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. A   
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE   
ACROSS THE AREA, ENHANCING LIFT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. THERE   
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE   
MORNING HOURS.  
  
THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON   
INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE   
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.   
WITH PW VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL   
LIKELY OCCUR. THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON  
FRIDAY, AS WELL AS THE MORE URBANIZED I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE   
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE WE HAVE   
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW  
JERSEY, AND NORTHERN DELAWARE AND MARYLAND; BASICALLY ALONG AND  
NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.   
  
THERE WILL BE PLENTY ON INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO   
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LIMITED  
SHEAR AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FAIRLY WEAK. SO WHILE THERE COULD   
BE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY, WE  
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH LATER   
THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER   
80S, AND LOW 90S FOR SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE   
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE   
AREA.  
  

HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS  
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING   
AND OVERNIGHT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO   
WANE SOME. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WANES OVERNIGHT, IT  
SHOWERS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF AS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO   
BE A COUPLE OF MORE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES OVERNIGHT. SO   
WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE   
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.  

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING

FLOOD WATCH

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WILMINGTON, ELKTON, NEWTON, WASHINGTON,
MORRISTOWN, FLEMINGTON, SOMERVILLE, NEW BRUNSWICK, FREEHOLD,
SANDY HOOK, TRENTON, PENNSVILLE, GLASSBORO, CAMDEN, CHERRY HILL,
MOORESTOWN, MOUNT HOLLY, JACKSON, LONG BEACH ISLAND,
WHARTON STATE FOREST, JIM THORPE, STROUDSBURG, READING,
ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, EASTON, MEDIA, PHILADELPHIA, HONEY BROOK,
OXFORD, WEST CHESTER, KENNETT SQUARE, COLLEGEVILLE, POTTSTOWN,
NORRISTOWN, LANSDALE, CHALFONT, PERKASIE, MORRISVILLE,
AND DOYLESTOWN

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE, NORTHEAST
  MARYLAND, NEW JERSEY, AND PENNSYLVANIA, INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS, IN NORTHERN DELAWARE, NEW CASTLE. IN
  NORTHEAST MARYLAND, CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY, CAMDEN, COASTAL
  OCEAN, EASTERN MONMOUTH, GLOUCESTER, HUNTERDON, MERCER,
  MIDDLESEX, MORRIS, NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON, OCEAN, SALEM,
  SOMERSET, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, SUSSEX, WARREN, AND WESTERN
  MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA, BERKS, CARBON, DELAWARE, EASTERN
  CHESTER, EASTERN MONTGOMERY, LEHIGH, LOWER BUCKS, MONROE,
  NORTHAMPTON, PHILADELPHIA, UPPER BUCKS, WESTERN CHESTER, AND
  WESTERN MONTGOMERY.

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
  THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
  LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
  ACROSS THE AREA. THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON
  FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN LEAD TO
  RAPIDLY RISING WATER AND FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
  AREAS, AND ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE GROUND REMAINS
  FAIRLY SATURATED DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
  WEEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WHICH CAN BE LIFE-THREATENING. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RAPIDLY RISING FLOOD WATERS
MAY QUICKLY INUNDATE ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. STREAMS
AND CREEKS COULD LEAVE THEIR BANKS, FLOODING NEARBY PROPERTIES.

PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN A LOCATION
THAT IS PRONE TO FLOODING. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.


WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS, BERGEN, ESSEX, PASSAIC, UNION, AND HUDSON
  COUNTIES.

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
  THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
  THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
  THE AREA. THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY
  WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAN LEAD TO RAPIDLY
  RISING WATER AND FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS,
  AND ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE GROUND REMAINS FAIRLY
  SATURATED DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

Friday, August 17, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE ATLANTIC....GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...AND THE NE PACIFIC FRIDAY AUGUST 17, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 17/0300 UTC IS NEAR 44.1N
38.9W, OR 1145 KM/620 NMI TO THE E OF CAPE RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND,
1205 KM/650 NMI TO THE NW OF THE AZORES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NE, OR
55 DEGREES, 19 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
COVER THE WATERS FROM 42N TO 46N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. PLEASE READ 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 17N 
SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 20N 
SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE 
FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 MPH TOWARD THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE 
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE SATURDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT 
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE 
LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N 
SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W, AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA, FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION, AND LINGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE WESTERN PART OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN LAND AND 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W, TO 09N23W, AND 09N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
09N33W TO 12N42W, AND 12N49W. PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 15N FROM 50W
EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WESTWARD.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION, AND LINGERING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COASTAL 
PLAINS OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N 
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN LAND AND 93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N69W, ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO ALONG 20N IN THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS
FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.

AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF 
WATERS ALONG 28N. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW, THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH 
SOUTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WATERS, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS, THEN DRIFT WESTWARD 
ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRESH EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT, WITH
THE TROUGH DISSIPATING ALONG 96W DURING THE LATE MORNINGS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE NW
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

NOCTURNAL NEAR GALE FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN ON 
FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL 
WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON FRIDAY, AND PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W, TO 27N44W, TO AN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N53W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N55W 28N57W 25N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND
57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE 32N55W-TO-25N60W SURFACE TROUGH.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW, AND ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS, COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES 
NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. A FEW INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERS NEAR 27N63W, AND NEAR 21N70W.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 28N81W. LIGHT 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE. FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE TO THE SOUTH 23N, EXCEPT BECOMING LOCALLY STRONG ALONG THE 
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY 
EVENING HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE LANE CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 131.4W AT 0900 UTC, OR 1450 
NM ESE OF HILO HAWAII, MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. LANE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, AND 
MOVE W OF 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SAT NIGHT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTH OF 10N ALONG 92W, MOVING W AT 10 
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTPEC.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 20N ALONG 113W, MOVING W AT 
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 09N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 08N78W TO 08N97W 
TO 10N122W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS NOTED E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS WEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AREA. NW 
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN 
FRESHEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.

NO MAJOR GAP WIND EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, 
ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT IS 
EXPECTED THERE EACH NIGHT. THESE FRESH WINDS COMBINED WITH LONG 
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SUPPORT SEAS TO 6-7 FT THROUGH SAT.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD MEANDER NEAR 09N DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MODERATE OR 
WEAKER, WITH THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO, WHERE WINDS CAN PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH EACH NIGHT.

LONG-PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IMPACTING CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND OFFSHORE ZONES IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON 
HURRICANE LANE.

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED W OF 140W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. AN 
AREA OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 7-8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE 
HAVE ALSO MOVED WEST OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MODERATE TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL WILL PREVAIL.

SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW YORK FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY FOR FRIDAY

SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW YORK
FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY FOR FRIDAY...


KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF CONEY ISLAND BEACH AND MANHATTAN BEACH

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....MODERATE.
LIGHTNING THREAT....MODERATE. IMPLIES THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
                    POSSIBLE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 3 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....76 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....UPPER 80S.
WINDS...............SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HEAT INDEX..........UP TO 100.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS MID 80S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT CONEY ISLAND...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:58 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:59 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 1:34 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 7:39 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO
ENTER THE SURF SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS FIRST. BE SURE
TO SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD, AND NEVER ALONE OR AT NIGHT.
ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHERN QUEENS-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF JACOB RIIS PARK AND ROCKAWAY BEACH

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....MODERATE.
LIGHTNING THREAT....MODERATE. IMPLIES THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
                    POSSIBLE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 3 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....75 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....MID 80S.
WINDS...............SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS LOWER 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS LOWER 70S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:46 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:55 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 1:22 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 7:34 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO
ENTER THE SURF SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS FIRST. BE SURE
TO SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD, AND NEVER ALONE OR AT NIGHT.
ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHERN NASSAU-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF ATLANTIC BEACH, LONG BEACH, LIDO BEACH,
AND JONES BEACH

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....MODERATE.
LIGHTNING THREAT....MODERATE. IMPLIES THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
                    POSSIBLE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 3 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....74 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....MID 80S.
WINDS...............SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS MID 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS LOWER 70S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT JONES INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:42 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:51 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 1:18 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 7:31 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO
ENTER THE SURF SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS FIRST. BE SURE
TO SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD, AND NEVER ALONE OR AT NIGHT.
ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF GILGO STATE PARK AND ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....MODERATE.
LIGHTNING THREAT....MODERATE. IMPLIES THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
                    POSSIBLE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 3 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....74 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....MID 80S.
WINDS...............SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS LOWER 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS LOWER 70S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT FIRE ISLAND INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:23 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:49 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 12:59 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 7:29 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO
ENTER THE SURF SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS FIRST. BE SURE
TO SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD, AND NEVER ALONE OR AT NIGHT.
ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.


SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF SMITH POINT, CUPSOGUE BEACH,
AND HITHER HILLS STATE PARK

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....MODERATE.
LIGHTNING THREAT....MODERATE. IMPLIES THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
                    POSSIBLE.
SURF HEIGHT.........AROUND 3 FEET.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8, WHICH IS CATEGORIZED AS VERY HIGH EXPOSURE.
SURF TEMPERATURE....74 DEGREES.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....LOWER 80S.
WINDS...............SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

TIDES...

AT SHINNECOCK INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:38 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:13 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 1:11 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:51 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO
ENTER THE SURF SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS FIRST. BE SURE
TO SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD, AND NEVER ALONE OR AT NIGHT.
ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND FLOAT,
AND DO NOT SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL
OR WAVE FOR HELP.

SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FRI AUG 17 2018

SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FRI AUG 17 2018


EASTERN MONMOUTH-

.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE MID 80S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....MODERATE. IMPLIES THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET, BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SURF TEMPERATURE....78 DEGREES.
SWELL...............LIGHT SWELLS.
PERIOD..............7 SECONDS.
WINDS...............SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT BELMAR...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:27 AM...
LOW TIDE AT 6:31 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 1:03 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:11 PM...


COASTAL OCEAN-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE MID 80S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....MODERATE. IMPLIES THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET, BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SURF TEMPERATURE....80 DEGREES.
SWELL...............LIGHT SWELLS.
PERIOD..............8 SECONDS.
WINDS...............SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT BARNEGAT INLET...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:55 AM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:24 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 1:31 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:59 PM...


COASTAL ATLANTIC-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE UPPER 80S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET, BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SURF TEMPERATURE....79 DEGREES.
SWELL...............LIGHT SWELLS.
PERIOD..............7 SECONDS.
WINDS...............SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT ATLANTIC CITY...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:37 AM...
LOW TIDE AT 6:56 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 1:18 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:34 PM...


ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE MID 80S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET, BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SURF TEMPERATURE....79 DEGREES.
SWELL...............LIGHT SWELLS.
PERIOD..............7 SECONDS.
WINDS...............SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT CAPE MAY...

HIGH TIDE AT 1:11 AM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:17 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 1:52 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:55 PM...


DELAWARE BEACHES-


.TODAY...
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IMPLIES THAT
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED RIP
CURRENTS. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND OTHER
STRUCTURES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH
YOU IN THE WATER.
WEATHER.............MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE....IN THE UPPER 80S.
ULTRAVIOLET INDEX...8 - VERY HIGH.
LIGHTNING THREAT....LOW. IMPLIES THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURF................AROUND 2 FEET, BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SURF TEMPERATURE....78 DEGREES.
SWELL...............LIGHT SWELLS.
PERIOD..............8 SECONDS.
WINDS...............SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIDE INFORMATION...

AT REHOBOTH BEACH...

HIGH TIDE AT 12:49 AM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:04 AM...
HIGH TIDE AT 1:24 PM...
LOW TIDE AT 7:46 PM...

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK,   
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF   
NEXT WEEK.  
  
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, THEN THE   
FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. WITH THE  
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A COUPLE OF SHORT   
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A   
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED   
TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE SEVERAL WAVES   
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.   
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES  
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE   
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVES TO   
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE   
NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO THERE COULD BE SOME   
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME AREAS.   
  
BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND   
WILL BE NOSING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. PW VALUES DROP TO NEAR   
1.25 INCHES, SO RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.  
  
HOWEVER, THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE TEMPORARY AS SHOWERS AND   
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR   
SOUTH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY  
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA   
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM RETURN TO   
THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND AS PW VALUES   
INCREASE, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS.  
  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY, BEFORE BUILDING   
TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH  
SHOULD LEAD TO A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER.  

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY, BUT WILL  
NOT CLEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM  
DRAWS CLOSER TODAY, HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE ACTIVITY  
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT TRACKING   
THROUGH THE AREA. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGH   
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  
  

AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT

AIR QUALITY ALERT

CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ELKTON, NEW BRUNSWICK, FREEHOLD, SANDY HOOK,
TRENTON, GLASSBORO, CAMDEN, CHERRY HILL, MOORESTOWN, MOUNT HOLLY,
JACKSON, LONG BEACH ISLAND, AND WHARTON STATE FOREST

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GROUND
LEVEL OZONE... IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY MEANS THAT AIR QUALITY WITHIN THE REGION MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY STANDARDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST CONCENTRATIONS OF GROUND-LEVEL OZONE AND FINE
PARTICULATES, VISIT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV OR WWW.STATE.NJ.US/DEP/AIRMON/ OR
CALL THE NEW JERSEY BUREAU OF AIR MONITORING AT 609-292-0138


SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-


...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THE CONNECTICUT DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN

IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY MEANS THAT GROUND LEVEL OZONE WITHIN THE
REGION MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY STANDARDS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...

PLEASE VISIT THE CONNECTICUT DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CT.GOV/DEEP/AQI


ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-


...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION HAS
ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY HEALTH ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

RICHMOND...KINGS...QUEENS...NEW YORK...BRONX...WESTCHESTER...ROCKLAND...
NASSAU...SUFFOLK.

IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

AIR QUALITY LEVELS IN OUTDOOR AIR ARE PREDICTED TO BE GREATER THAN
AN AIR QUALITY INDEX VALUE OF 100 FOR THE POLLUTANT OF GROUND LEVEL
OZONE . THE AIR QUALITY INDEX...OR AQI...WAS CREATED AS AN EASY WAY
TO CORRELATE LEVELS OF DIFFERENT POLLUTANTS TO ONE SCALE. THE HIGHER
THE AQI VALUE...THE GREATER THE HEALTH CONCERN.

WHEN POLLUTION LEVELS ARE ELEVATED...THE NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT
OF HEALTH RECOMMENDS THAT INDIVIDUALS CONSIDER LIMITING STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR PHYSICAL ACTIVITY TO REDUCE THE RISK OF ADVERSE HEALTH
EFFECTS. PEOPLE WHO MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE EFFECTS OF
ELEVATED LEVELS OF POLLUTANTS INCLUDE THE VERY YOUNG...AND THOSE
WITH PREEXISTING RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SUCH AS ASTHMA OR HEART
DISEASE. THOSE WITH SYMPTOMS SHOULD CONSIDER CONSULTING THEIR
PERSONAL PHYSICIAN.

A TOLL FREE AIR QUALITY HOTLINE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED SO NEW YORK
RESIDENTS CAN STAY INFORMED ON THE AIR QUALITY SITUATION. THE TOLL
FREE NUMBER IS 1 800 5 3 5, 1 3 4 5.


EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-


...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BERGEN...ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...UNION...HUDSON.

IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

AN OZONE ACTION DAY HAS BEEN DECLARED! OZONE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS CATEGORY IN CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND HOT TEMPERATURES. SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS
INCLUDING THE VERY YOUNG, THE ELDERLY, AND PERSONS WITH RESPIRATORY
DISEASES SUCH AS ASTHMA, SHOULD AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT THE NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT
OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WEB SITE AT... HTTP://WWW.NJAQINOW.NET

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING


HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UPPER 90S.

* TIMING...THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME HEAT CAN CAUSE ILLNESS AND DEATH AMONG AT-
  RISK POPULATION WHO CANNOT STAY COOL. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
  MAY CAUSE HEAT STRESS DURING OUTDOOR EXERTION OR EXTENDED
  EXPOSURE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 95 TO 99 DEGREES
FOR TWO OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS, OR 100 TO 104 DEGREES FOR ANY
LENGTH OF TIME.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK, THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY! IN CASES OF HEAT STROKE CALL 9 1 1.


NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UPPER 90S.

* TIMING...THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME HEAT CAN CAUSE ILLNESS AND DEATH AMONG AT-
  RISK POPULATION WHO CANNOT STAY COOL. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
  MAY CAUSE HEAT STRESS DURING OUTDOOR EXERTION OR EXTENDED
  EXPOSURE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 95 TO 99 DEGREES
FOR TWO OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS, OR 100 TO 104 DEGREES FOR ANY
LENGTH OF TIME.

SENIORS AND THOSE WITH CHRONIC HEALTH PROBLEMS OR MENTAL HEALTH
CONDITIONS ARE AT AN INCREASED RISK. HOMES WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING CAN BE MUCH HOTTER THAN OUTDOOR TEMPERATURES.

USE AIR CONDITIONING TO STAY COOL AT HOME, OR GO TO A PLACE THAT
HAS AIR CONDITIONING. CHECK ON VULNERABLE FRIENDS, FAMILY MEMBERS
AND NEIGHBORS. TO FIND A NYC COOLING CENTER, CALL 3 1 1 OR VISIT
HTTP://NYC.GOV/OEM

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK, THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY! IN CASES OF HEAT STROKE CALL 9 1 1.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN....GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NE PACIFIC....WEDNESDAY AUGUST 15, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
122 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N46W. THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST
6 HOURS. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE 
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE YESTERDAY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SUBTROPICAL 
DEPRESSION OR SUBTROPICAL STORM MAY FORM OVERNIGHT OR ON 
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLDER
WATERS AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER THIS WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO
BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W, FROM 22N 
SOUTHWARD. 15 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W, FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A PRE-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 21N 
SOUTHWARD. AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ARE NEARBY. IT 
IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE 
AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W, FROM 23N 
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A PRE-EXISTING AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION 
MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W, TO 11N18W, 10N20W, AND THEN TO 10N33W. THE 
ITCZ IS ALONG 09N36W 08N43W 07N48W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 03N TO 
13N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO
24N91W, TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W.

ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 90W
EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE, EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NOCTURNAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EACH NIGHT, 
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF FRESH NE TO E WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS, 
TO BELIZE IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO CUBA, AND FROM HONDURAS TO 
GUATEMALA TO SE MEXICO INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W 
WESTWARD, AND ELSEWHERE FROM 70W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN NE SEMICIRCLE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N/09N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 
84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND LAND,
IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN 
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SE U.S.A., 
PASSING THROUGH 32N76W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS, TO BELIZE 
IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NW OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA 
COAST, FROM HAITI TO CUBA, AND FROM HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA TO SE 
MEXICO INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD, AND ELSEWHERE 
FROM 70W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN, TO 22N47W TO 14N60W, JUST TO THE EAST OF
MARTINIQUE AND SAINT LUCIA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 480 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS, WITH A 30N SURFACE RIDGE, WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 15 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 122.3W AT 
0900 UTC, MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1007MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AREA 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS VERY 
SMALL WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MODEST 
SIZED MIDDLE LEVEL CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE 
LOW, WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
IN BANDS WITHIN 240 NM AND 90 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANTS, WHILE 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 180 
TO 360 NM ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THU WHILE GRADUALLY 
STRENGTHENING, REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THU NIGHT AS IT 
REACHES WARMER WATERS AND MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO 
TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE ACROSS 
THE PACIFIC WATERS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT WNW ACROSS MEXICO AND THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N73.5W TO 10N97W TO 
08.5N110W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NEAR 10.8N122.3W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF 103W, AND 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, 
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WIND FLOW AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS IN 
THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL 
CYCLONE JOHN, IN THE FORM OF A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL, HAVE 
SHIFTED SE INTO THE WATERS ABOUT 150 NM OFFSHORE OF PUNTA 
EUGENIA, AND ARE ACTING THE WEAKEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, 
AND THE WINDS. THIS WEAK TROUGH AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE BY FRI. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH FRI, BEFORE THE TROUGH DISSIPATES AND ALLOWS THE PRES 
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN MODESTLY LEADING TO FRESHENING NW WINDS. 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS 
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI TO RAISE SEAS TO 6-8 FT.

GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH W TO SW 
WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT INTO WED, AND 
AGAIN NIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE APPROACHING SOUTHERLY 
SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
FRI TO RAISE SEAS TO 4-7 FT.

FARTHER SOUTH, STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL MOVE 
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED, WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 7 
TO 10 FT WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING, AND HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS 
THE WATERS BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND MANZANILLO. THIS WILL PRODUCE 
VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINES 
AND OUTER REEFS WITH LOCALIZED BREAKING WAVES BUILDING TO 15-20 
FT TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING. 

LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO BRIEFLY STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH GAPS WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY FRESH NOCTURNAL 
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRI MORNING. 

GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE E WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 09N AND 11N. 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG PERIOD S TO SW 
SWELL HAS SPREAD INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS MON AND RAISED 
OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS. A STRONGER AND LARGER PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO 
THE REGIONAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 
7-10 FT BY MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING 
THROUGH FRI. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS AND OUTER REEFS OF THE REGION.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N134.5W, ALONG A 
WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W-NW AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVERNIGHT FROM 
WITHIN 60 TO 150 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. FRESH 
EASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE LOW CENTER, WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE 
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THIS AREA OF FRESH EASTERLY 
WINDS THROUGH WED , EVEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE OPENS INTO A TROUGH 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND REACHED 140W WED NIGHT. 

LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL, IN THE FORM OF 7 
TO 10 FT SEAS, WILL PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 
20N E OF 120W TONIGHT THROUGH THU, AND THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 
8 FT ON THU NIGHT.