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Monday, December 31, 2018

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK AFFECTING ESSEX...MORRIS AND PASSAIC COUNTIES

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY...

PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK AFFECTING ESSEX...MORRIS AND PASSAIC COUNTIES

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.



THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK.
* AT 10:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING, THEN CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.3 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...HORSENECK ROAD IN FAIRFIELD IS SUBJECT TO FLOODING AND
  CLOSURES.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.3 FEET ON MAR 30
  1994.

WIND ADVISORIES FOR NEW YEARS DAY

SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-  


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST  
TUESDAY...  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY,  
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY.  
  
* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH TONIGHT. WEST  
  WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY.   
  
* TIMING...TONIGHT, AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
  AFTERNOON.   
  
* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS, TREES, AND POWER  
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.   
  



NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-  
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-  
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-  
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-  
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-  
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-  
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-  
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-  
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-  


   
..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY,  
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY.  
  
* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH.   
  
* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.   
  
* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS, TREES, AND POWER  
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.   
  


NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-  
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-  
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-  
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-  
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-  
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-  
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-  
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WILMINGTON, DOVER, GEORGETOWN,   
REHOBOTH BEACH, ELKTON, CHESTERTOWN, CENTREVILLE, EASTON, DENTON,  
NEWTON, WASHINGTON, MORRISTOWN, FLEMINGTON, SOMERVILLE,   
NEW BRUNSWICK, FREEHOLD, SANDY HOOK, TRENTON, PENNSVILLE,   
GLASSBORO, CAMDEN, CHERRY HILL, MOORESTOWN, MOUNT HOLLY, JACKSON,  
MILLVILLE, HAMMONTON, CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE, OCEAN CITY,   
ATLANTIC CITY, LONG BEACH ISLAND, WHARTON STATE FOREST,   
JIM THORPE, STROUDSBURG, READING, ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, MEDIA,   
PHILADELPHIA, HONEY BROOK, OXFORD, WEST CHESTER, KENNETT SQUARE,   
COLLEGEVILLE, POTTSTOWN, NORRISTOWN, LANSDALE, CHALFONT,   
PERKASIE, MORRISVILLE, AND DOYLESTOWN  


..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND  
ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY.  
  
* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH.  
  
* TIMING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK  
  TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 8 AM AND 11  
  AM. THE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
  
* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. TREE  
  LIMBS COULD BE BLOWN DOWN AND SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT.  
  

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK...



THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PASSAIC RIVER AT
PINE BROOK...

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.
THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.



THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK.
* AT 6:45 AM, THE RIVER LEVEL WAS 18.84 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD
  STAGE ON TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
  FROM LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE LEVEL SHOULD CONTINUE
  RISING TO NEAR 19.2 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
  ADDITIONAL RISES POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET, STREET FLOODING BEGINS IN FAIRFIELD
  INCLUDING CAMP LANE ROAD. TWO BRIDGES ROAD IS CLOSED GOING
  INTO LINCOLN PARK AND WAYNE.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF
  19.2 FEET ON JUNE 16, 1998.

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1 1/2 IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1 1/2 IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
HIGH- RES MODELS INDICATING THAT MUCH OF THIS COULD FALL IN A 6  
HR PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS   
MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH FFG ACROSS NE NJ JUST   
BELOW AN INCH FOR 6 HRS, A FEW QUICK RESPONDING SMALL RIVERS AND  
STREAMS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING AS WELL. LARGER STREAMS   
AND MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD HANDLE THIS RUNOFF.   

THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH TUESDAY   
MORNING, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. IF THIS   
POTENTIAL INCREASES A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

Sunday, December 30, 2018

NEW YEARS EVE RAIN ON THE WAY

AT 12Z MONDAY, A LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX IN TEXAS, WITH  
SUBSTANTIAL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. (AS  
EVIDENCED BY CONSIDERABLE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING). THE VORT MAX WILL  
ZIP NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z TUESDAY, WITH A  
ZONALLY-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING TO THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE  
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OUR REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
  
FOR OUR AREA, THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN WELL AFTER   
DAYBREAK (GFS/ECMWF) AND MAY EVEN HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON   
(CMC/NAM NEST). THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW IN WHICH SUB-FREEZING   
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY,   
AND VICINITY MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD PRECIPITATION MOVE IN EARLY   
ENOUGH, SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE   
PROBABILITY OF THIS IS LOW GIVEN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY REMOVE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS  
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS, BUT I WAS NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DO  
SO.  
  
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, THE FOCUS OF THIS STORM WILL BE ON  
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY, MODELS EXHIBIT LOWER QPF WITH THE   
UPCOMING SYSTEM THAN THE LAST ONE (AND SHOW QUITE GOOD   
AGREEMENT), WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE   
LAST EVENT (GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH/WEST TRACK OF THE   
LOW)...GENERALLY ALONG NORTH OF THE I-276/I-195 CORRIDORS. THE   
RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT   
RAINFALL TOTALS, WHICH APPEAR TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES   
NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDORS, TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY TO  
THE SOUTH. OF COURSE, NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT   
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ARE FAIRLY SENSITIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, SO   
EVEN THESE MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED  
FLOODING. THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO,   
BUT A FLOOD WATCH DOES NOT SEEM NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.  

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY... PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK AFFECTING ESSEX...MORRIS AND PASSAIC COUNTIES

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY...
  PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK AFFECTING ESSEX...MORRIS AND PASSAIC COUNTIES



THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK.
* AT 6:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.4 FEET BY TUESDAY
  EVENING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...HORSENECK ROAD IN FAIRFIELD IS SUBJECT TO FLOODING AND
  CLOSURES.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.4 FEET ON JUN 6
  2003.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NEW YEAR'S EVE.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS  
THE REGION, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN THE AREAS WHERE THE  
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS.  

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NEW YEAR'S EVE. SOME MINOR   
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, GIVEN ANTECEDENT   
CONDITIONS. LOW PRES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD COULD  
BRING ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT.  

WATCHING COASTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED, AS THE GFS HAS NOW LATCHED   
ON TO SOMETHING THE GEM WAS ADVERTISING LAST NIGHT...LOW PRES   
OFFSHORE WITH SNOW FOR THU. THE LATEST 00Z GEM HOWEVER TAKES A  
987 AND FALLING LOW RIGHT OVER NYC, BRINGING MAINLY RAIN TO THE  
AREA WITH THE SYS, BUT WITH PERHAPS MORE CSTL IMPACTS WITH MORE  
INTENSE ONSHORE WINDS AND A NEW MOON COMING ON SAT. THE ECMWF   
IS SLOWER WITH THE WHOLE SYS BY ABOUT A DAY, AND CLOSER TO THE   
GEM TRACK AND INTENSITY. BASED ON ALL OF THIS DATA, CHCS FOR   
PCPN HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FCST THU-FRI. RAIN OR SNOW HAS BEEN   
USED FOR PCPN TYPE DUE TO HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT TRACK   
AND TIMING. THE NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS, BUT SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH  
A GRAIN OF SALT ATTM, WITH AN ELY LOW TRACK KEEPING TEMPS IN   
THE 30S, AND A WLY WARM SECTOR TRACK BRINGING THE NUMBERS INTO   
THE 50S.  

A BAND OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THIS MORNING.

A BAND OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE  
AREA DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN   
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THIS MORNING. THIS   
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL BE QUICK MOVING, SO THE   
FLURRIES WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE   
LIGHT AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES.  
HOWEVER, A FEW AREAS MAY RECEIVE A LIGHT DUSTING AS HAS ALREADY  
OCCURRED FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  
  
ONCE THE FLURRIES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, BEFORE  
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  

Friday, December 28, 2018

FLASH FLOODING AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC... ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...


LONG DURATION WINTER STORM IN THE SOUTHWEST; HEAVY RAIN IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
A WINTER STORM DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE UP FOR ALBUQUERQUE AS WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE, SNOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC.

FLASH FLOODING AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...

THE HEAVY SNOW LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN--WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. FURTHERMORE,
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALSO. FARTHER EAST, HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
IMPACTED THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY--WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO IMPACT AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST--SEE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION. THE NEW ENGLAND REGION CAN EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION--WITH
LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.

A SECOND WINTER STORM UNDERWAY IS IMPACTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA, NEW
MEXICO, AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL, WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

AFTER A SHORT LULL TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL STATES
WILL EXPERIENCE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS, BELOW TO WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST
DEPARTURES EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

Thursday, December 27, 2018

REMEMBERING THE BLIZZARD OF DECEMBER 26-27 2010

 A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND THEN PAST THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 26TH TO JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING DECEMBER 27TH. THIS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREAD SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW PLUS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE POWERFUL BLIZZARD BROUGHT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NYC METRO, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES TO THE EAST. THE HEAVY SNOW WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AREAWIDE WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.



********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   WILTON                18.0   830 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   NEW CANAAN            17.5   815 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   GREENWICH             17.0   700 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   STRATFORD             16.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   NORWALK               16.0   910 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   WESTPORT              14.8   145 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   DARIEN                14.5   814 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   DANBURY               14.1   800 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BRIDGEPORT            12.0   900 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   WESTBROOK              9.5  1020 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   OLD SAYBROOK           7.0   813 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   EAST HADDAM            6.5  1200 PM 12/27  PUBLIC

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   MILFORD               14.0   814 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   BEACON FALLS          13.5   817 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   NEW HAVEN             13.0   815 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   SOUTHBURY             12.0   818 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   WATERBURY              9.8   818 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   MERIDEN                8.8  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   GALES FERRY            7.5   913 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 NNE NEWENT           7.5  1151 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORWICH                6.5   813 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   COLCHESTER             6.5   812 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   GROTON                 6.5   812 PM 12/27  CT DOT
   LEDYARD CENTER         5.0   730 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   LYNDHURST             29.0   230 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LODI                  27.1   700 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   RUTHERFORD            23.0   800 AM 12/27  NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
   OAKLAND               22.0   730 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   GARFIELD              21.8   331 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BERGENFIELD           20.4   200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GLEN ROCK             18.0  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   RIDGEWOOD             17.5   622 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PARAMUS               17.0   800 AM 12/27  NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
   RIVERVALE             14.0   930 AM 12/27  PUBLIC

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   BELLEVILLE            24.8  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   NEWARK AIRPORT        24.2   700 AM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   BLOOMFIELD            24.0   945 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   WEST ORANGE           24.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   VERONA                23.0   500 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   MILLBURN              22.5   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   CEDAR GROVE           21.1   700 AM 12/27  PUBLIC

...HUDSON COUNTY...
   JERSEY CITY           26.0   955 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HARRISON              25.0   415 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER
   SECAUCUS              25.0   800 AM 12/27
   KEARNY                20.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   HOBOKEN               19.9   800 AM 12/27

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
   CLIFTON               25.5   215 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HASKELL               24.5   200 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WAYNE                 22.0   915 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RINGWOOD              22.0   810 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   WEST MILFORD          22.0   415 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...UNION COUNTY...
   RAHWAY                32.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   ELIZABETH             31.8   700 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ROSELLE               28.7   710 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   UNION                 27.0   745 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CLARK                 27.0   745 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   FANWOOD               26.0   100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   GARWOOD               25.0   845 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   ROSELLE PARK          21.0  1230 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   PLAINFIELD            18.0   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
   BEDFORD PARK          23.7   830 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   SOUNDVIEW PARK HOMES  22.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BRONX                 20.9  1200 PM 12/27  PUBLIC - BRONX ZOO
   WEST FARMS            20.5  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   EASTCHESTER           20.0   925 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   RIVERDALE             19.4   840 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   PELHAM BAY            17.2   840 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   EAST TREMONT          16.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   PARKCHESTER           15.7   840 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...KINGS COUNTY...
   BROOKLYN              24.5   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   MARINE PARK           24.5   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   SHEEPSHEAD BAY        24.0   700 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   NORTH MASSAPEQUA      23.5  1200 PM 12/27  PUBLIC
   WANTAGH               22.0  1100 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEVITTOWN             21.9   119 PM 12/27  PUBLIC
   OLD BETHPAGE          20.5   907 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PLAINVIEW             20.5  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WOODMERE              19.4   950 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   CARLE PLACE           18.2  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FARMINGDALE           18.0  1030 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   FLORAL PARK           18.0  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NEW HYDE PARK         16.8   200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GARDEN CITY           16.7   930 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   BELLMORE              16.4  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   VALLEY STREAM         16.0  1150 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BALDWIN HARBOR        16.0   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LONG BEACH            16.0   245 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SEAFORD               15.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST HEMPSTEAD        12.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GLEN COVE             12.0  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK          20.0   700 AM 12/27  CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   HARRIMAN              26.0   630 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MONROE                26.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   TUXEDO PARK           26.0   255 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   HIGHLAND MILLS        25.0   915 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   WASHINGTONVILLE       22.0  1043 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MOUNTAIN LODGE PARK   22.0  1121 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CORNWALL ON HUDSON    18.0  1130 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MONTGOMERY            18.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   NEW WINDSOR           17.5   745 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   GOSHEN                17.5   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NEWBURGH              16.5   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WARWICK               14.0  1011 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MIDDLETOWN            13.0  1020 AM 12/27  PUBLIC

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
   COLD SPRING           17.0   730 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   LAKE CARMEL           13.5   940 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MAHOPAC               12.5   100 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   MIDDLE VILLAGE        21.5  1250 PM 12/27  PUBLIC
   FLUSHING              21.0   207 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BAYSIDE               20.5  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HOWARD BEACH          18.0   200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   RICHMOND HILL         18.0  1200 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ASTORIA               16.1   801 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   FRESH MEADOWS         16.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   JFK AIRPORT           15.6   700 AM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   LA GUARDIA AIRPORT    14.0   700 AM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   WOODSIDE              14.0   645 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
   GREAT KILLS           29.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   WESTERLEIGH           26.0   500 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   ELTINGVILLE           22.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   STATEN ISLAND         17.8   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
   TALLMAN               24.0  1055 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   WEST HAVERSTRAW       21.0   130 PM 12/27  PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   UPTON                 18.8   100 PM 12/27  NWS OFFICE
   NORTH BABYLON         18.5   845 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   PATCHOGUE             17.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   CENTEREACH            17.0   930 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST ISLIP            16.0  1215 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   EAST NORTHPORT        15.5   715 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUND BEACH           15.5  1200 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE
   NORTHPORT             15.2   138 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CENTERPORT            15.0   650 AM 12/27  COOP-OBSERVER
   BLUE POINT            15.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   EAST SETAUKET         15.0   715 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   MOUNT SINAI           14.2  1255 PM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE
   ISLIP AIRPORT         14.2   100 PM 12/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   QUOGUE                14.0  1100 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   SHOREHAM              14.0   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SAYVILLE              14.0  1000 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   HOLBROOK              12.5   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   BAITING HOLLOW        12.0   145 PM 12/27  PUBLIC
   SMITHTOWN             11.5  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   800 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   DIX HILLS             10.7   900 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FLANDERS              10.0   620 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ORIENT                10.0  1230 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   STONY BROOK            7.3  1000 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MATTITUCK              6.0  1100 AM 12/27  CO-OP OBSERVER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   LARCHMONT             22.0   940 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   SCARSDALE             22.0   915 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   BRONXVILLE            22.0   935 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   MOUNT VERNON          22.0   940 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   ARMONK                20.0   900 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   YONKERS               19.5   800 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON    18.0   930 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   BRIARCLIFF MANOR      13.1   810 AM 12/27  PUBLIC

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                        GUST            OF
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      60   921 PM 12/26  ASOS
   DANBURY                 60  1031 PM 12/26  ASOS
   GREENWICH               60  1000 PM 12/26  TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   NEW HAVEN               60  1201 AM 12/27  ASOS
   MERIDEN                 54  1147 PM 12/26  ASOS
   OXFORD                  52  1035 PM 12/26  MESONET
   MOMAUGUIN               40  1144 PM 12/26  MESONET

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   NEW LONDON              68   115 AM 12/27  MESONET
   GALES FERRY             59   814 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   GROTON                  59  1126 PM 12/26  ASOS

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   OAKLAND                 40   730 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   BERGENFIELD             40   300 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   CALDWELL                35   812 PM 12/26  ASOS

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
   PARKCHESTER             53  1140 AM 12/27  PUBLIC

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   BAYVILLE                68  1037 PM 12/26  MESONET
   SEAFORD                 59  1200 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   KINGS POINT             59  1142 PM 12/26  MESONET
   FARMINGDALE             52   835 PM 12/26  ASOS
   CARLE PLACE             41  1200 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK            36   944 PM 12/26  ASOS

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   MIDDLETOWN              54   630 PM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MONROE                  50  1200 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   MONTGOMERY              36   445 AM 12/27  ASOS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   1 W NYC/JFK AIRPORT     59   954 PM 12/26  ASOS
   NYC/LA GUARDIA          55   952 PM 12/26  ASOS
   BREEZY POINT            48  1040 PM 12/26  MESONET


...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
   TAPPAN                  52   933 PM 12/26  MESONET

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   PATCHOGUE               70   910 PM 12/26  PUBLIC
   ISLIP AIRPORT           64   910 PM 12/26  ASOS
   SHINNECOCK HILLS        62   838 PM 12/26  MESONET
   MOUNT SINAI             60  1245 AM 12/27  NWS EMPLOYEE
   GILGO BEACH             60  1045 PM 12/26  MESONET
   WESTHAMPTON             56  1053 PM 12/26  ASOS
   MONTAUK                 55  1124 PM 12/26  ASOS
   SHIRLEY                 55  1030 PM 12/26  ASOS
   EAST MORICHES           54   920 PM 12/26  MESONET
   MECOX                   53  1040 PM 12/26  MESONET
   FISHERS ISLAND          52   125 AM 12/27  MESONET
   BLUE POINT              50   900 PM 12/26  MESONET
   ORIENT                  50  1230 AM 12/27  PUBLIC
   BRIDGEHAMPTON           50   800 PM 12/26  CO-OP OBSERVER
   LINDENHURST             47   546 AM 12/27  TRAINED SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   WHITE PLAINS            67   121 AM 12/27  ASOS
   HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON      63   930 PM 12/26  PUBLIC
   LARCHMONT               50   950 PM 12/26  MESONET
   CROTON FALLS            47  1115 PM 12/26  MESONET

$$

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
NWUS51 KOKX 261846
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG UNION                   40.70N  74.27W
12/26/2010                   UNION              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TELEPHONE POLES ON RT 22 WEST


1200 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH HAVEN             41.38N  72.86W
12/27/2010                   NEW HAVEN          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE GAS STATION CANOPY COLLAPSED ON WASHINGTON AVE


0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HAMDEN                  41.37N  72.90W
12/27/2010                   NEW HAVEN          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN IN HAMDEN


0330 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    EAST HAVEN              41.30N  72.86W
12/27/2010                   NEW HAVEN          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER UP TO CAR WINDOWS ON COZY BEACH AVE

A POWERFUL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS WITH SLICK SNOW-COVERED ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. FARTHER SOUTH, HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY

A POWERFUL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS WITH SLICK SNOW-COVERED ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. FARTHER SOUTH, HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY


SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

A STRONG STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BY FRIDAY EVENING.   THE STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TRAVEL WILL BE
HAZARDOUS WITH SLICK SNOW-COVERED ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  BY FRIDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL MOVE INTO PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  SNOW, HEAVY AT
TIMES, WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY.  THE SNOW WILL END OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING.  OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY, SNOW WILL START OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ENDING BY
FRIDAY EVENING.  IN ADDITION, POCKETS OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
ENDING BY THURSDAY EVENING.  POCKETS OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST WHILE FORMING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BY
FRIDAY MORNING.  THE ENERGY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  THE STORM WILL PRODUCE COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SNOW
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN.  THE RAIN WILL END OVER
THE NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING.  THE
SNOW WILL END OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WHILE EXPANDING
INTO SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY.  FURTHERMORE ON FRIDAY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.     

SOAKING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM, INSTANCES OF URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR.


RAIN AND SLEET MAY MIX WITH A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN EARLY TONIGHT   
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN   
NEW JERSEY. SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
SOAKING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT WET  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH  
THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM, INSTANCES OF URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND   
RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR.  

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS   
FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN   
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST   
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THERE IS AT LEAST A RISK OF MINOR URBAN   
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  
  
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING WIDESPREAD   
PRECIPITATION, BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN RECENT WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM, INSTANCES OF URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR.


ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
GIVEN RECENT WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM, INSTANCES OF URBAN,   
SMALL STREAM, AND RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR.  

GET READY FOR MODEL MAYHEM...INCONSISTENT....HODGEPODGE FORECASTING DAY BY DAY IN THE WEEKS AHEAD

CHALLENGING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST TODAY, WITH A WET STORM LATE   
THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN THEREAFTER.  
  
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT VORT MAX IN THE CENTRAL U.S.   
WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW RACING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT   
LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL   
SURGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRIDAY, WITH   
SUBSTANTIAL LARGE-SCALE LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE PERTURBATION IN   
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITHIN A BROAD PLUME OF WARM/MOIST   
ADVECTION, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY   
NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND, WITH SURFACE   
TEMPERATURE LIKELY COLD ENOUGH AT ONSET FOR A WINTRY BEGINNING   
FOR THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. AGREE WITH   
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MODELS ARE WARMING THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR IN   
THIS REGION TOO QUICKLY...THEY VIRTUALLY ALWAYS DO...SO KEPT   
SOME MENTION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH A PORTION OF THE   
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. I DID TRIM BACK THE MENTION TOWARD DAYBREAK   
GIVEN FAIRLY REASONABLE CONSENSUS OF ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
BY 12Z FRIDAY IN THIS REGION, BUT A PART OF ME IS WONDERING IF   
THIS IS A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.  
  
NEVERTHELESS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE   
RAIN FOR EVERYONE, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THURSDAY   
EVENING ONWARD. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS RATHER WARM GIVEN THE   
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, SO CUT BACK ON TEMPERATURES   
SOMEWHAT. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD ACROSS THE   
AREA.  
  
OF COURSE, GIVEN THE WET YEAR WE HAVE HAD, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR  
FRIDAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. I AM SOMEWHAT WORRIED AT   
THE LOOK OF THE NAM/GFS/CMC FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH ALL SHOWING   
WIDESPREAD 0.75-2 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS EVEN   
HAS A CORRIDOR OF 2-3 INCHES IN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW   
JERSEY, WITH THE CMC/NAM SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH  
THIS MAXIMUM AXIS. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE BENIGN WITH   
0.5-1.5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE PAST EVENT AS A   
GUIDE, THINK THAT 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL CAUSE SOME   
FLOODING PROBLEMS, BUT SHOULD THE LIGHTER ECMWF VERIFY, FLOODING  
INSTANCES MAY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR SEVERE AS SOME OF THE PAST   
EVENTS THIS COOL SEASON. NOTABLY, FORECAST PWS ARE ONCE AGAIN   
NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, WITH RATHER DEEP (~10 KFT) WARM CLOUDS   
AVAILABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. THESE   
ENVIRONMENTS HAVE BEEN QUITE PROBLEMATIC RECENTLY IN TERMS OF   
AREAL/STREAM FLOODING.  
  
ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ANY EMBEDDED   
CONVECTION WITH THE RAIN SHIELD, WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS   
CERTAINLY IMPLYING THIS BEHAVIOR DURING THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS   
TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME (WITH A SIMILAR   
OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...INSTABILITY-SPEAKING,   
ANYWAY...TO THE LAST EVENT), BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE CERTAINLY   
PRESENT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS FROM CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTIONS.  
OVERALL, THINK CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH FOR HEAVY   
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL MENTION IN THE HWO.  
  
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY, WITH RESIDUAL NORTHWEST-FLOW   
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (PROBABLY STILL TOO WARM FOR   
SNOW). THE COLD AIR REALLY LAGS THE SYSTEM, WITH THE STRONGER   
COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS   
TIME, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN WITH THE COOLING   
TREND COMMENCING.  
  
THEREAFTER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE PLUNGES. ENSEMBLES ARE   
VERITABLE SPAGHETTI SUNDAY ONWARD, AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS   
LOOK COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER (AND SOMETIMES WITH   
THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS). THE ECMWF HAS REMAINED   
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH,   
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MORE   
LIKELY A COLD RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN CWA). THE CMC IS COMPLETELY   
DRY WITH NO SYSTEM TO SPEAK OF. THE GFS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE   
ECMWF, BUT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO   
OUR AREA. THINGS GET WORSE IN TERMS OF MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT   
WEEK. WAY WORSE. THE MODELS BECOME LARGELY OUT OF PHASE WITH   
EACH OTHER, EVEN IN THE LARGE SCALE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT   
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, BUT THE   
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, SYSTEM EVOLUTION, AND SYNOPTIC   
PATTERNS EXHIBIT LITTLE SIMILARITY. AS SUCH, NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL  
POPS/TEMPERATURES BLENDED WITH CONTINUITY WAS THE FORECAST   
METHOD MONDAY ONWARD.