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Tuesday, February 27, 2018

TOP 6TH WARMEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IN THE NJ REGIONAL AREA


Image result for FEBRUARY

Top 6 Warmest February On Record-mostly Top 3/4**
February Projected Climate Ranking As Of 7 Am Today-tuesday Feb
27, Based On Our Mid Shift Fcst Through The 28th And Mins This
Tuesday Morning. Some Of The Rankings Have Slipped Due To Cooler
Daytimes Over The Weekend And Chillier Lows Than Expected For ThisMorning And Again Tomorrow Morning.Abe #3 Warmest 37.7 Or 7.0f Warmer Than The 30.7 Norm.
39.2-2017
38.6-1998
37.7-2018
36.8-1954
Acy #2 Warmest 42.5 Or 7.2f Warmer Than The 35.3 Norm.
43.0 -2017
42.5 -2018
40.6 -1954
Ilg #6 Warmest 40.6 Or 5.6f Warmer Than The 35.0 Norm.
43.1-2017
42.3-1903
41.2-1976
41.1-1990
40.9-1998
40.6-2018
40.5-1909
Phl #3(Tie) Warmest 41.8 Or 6.1f Warmer Than The 35.7 Norm.
44.2-2017
42.2-1925
41.8-2018
41.8-1998
41.4-1890

CLOUD COVER INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN

High Clouds Will Be On The Increase On Wednesday As High Pressure 

Pushes Farther East And Low Pressure Approaches From Our West. A 

Southwesterly Flow Will Continue, Allowing The Above Normal 

Temperatures To Continue As Well. Temperatures On Wednesday Should 

Be Around 10 To 15 Degrees Above Normal. Conditions Will Remain 

Dry Through Wednesday Night.


Clouds Will Lower And Thicken From Late Wednesday Into Thursday. 

The Next Chance For Precipitation Will Be Thursday Afternoon As 

A Warm Front Approaches From The Southwest.

PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL/LIQUID IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND

PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL/LIQUID IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEEK STORM TAKES HOLD

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEEK STORM TAKES HOLD

COMPLICATED AND DYNAMICAL STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK..HINTS OF ANOTHER STORM NEXT WEEK AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING IN AFTER ?

The Developing Coastal Storm Thursday Night And Friday Remains
The Primary Focus Of The Long-term Forecast.
The Upper-level Patterns In The Pacific And Atlantic Are Of
Particular Interest To The Medium Range Forecast, As Each
Features Anomalous Ridging That Will Have Profound Effects On
North American Upper-level Flow. In The Atlantic, A Ridge In The
Northern Atlantic Will Retrogress Through And West Of Greenland
Through The Rest Of The Week. Once The Ridge Reaches The
Vicinity Of Southwest Greenland, The Major Trough Of Interest
For The Northeast Will Be Digging To Its South-southwest,
Ultimately Generating A High-over-low Blocking Pattern In The
Western Atlantic This Weekend Into Early Next Week. The Digging
Trough Will Intensify Rapidly As It Phases With A Southern-
Stream Vort Max Progressing From The Central/southern Plains
Wednesday Night And Thursday To The Mid-atlantic Thursday Night.
Thereafter, A Deep Longer-wave Trough Develops Off The Coast
And Becomes Nearly Stationary. This Allows High-amplitude
Ridging To Develop In The Central/eastern U.s. This Weekend Into
Early Next Week. One Of The Major Discrepancies In The
Operational Models This Weekend Is Where This High-amplitude
Ridge Axis Sets Up. The Cmc/ecmwf Are Much Farther West Than The
Gfs, And This Generates Forecast Max/min Temperatures 10+
Degrees Apart Saturday Through Monday.
Meanwhile, In The Pacific, Ridge Amplification Occurs In The
Northeast Pacific Into Alaska Through Week's End, Which Allows A
Downstream Longwave Trough To Dig Far Southward Into The Western
U.s. This Permits A Subtropical Ridge In The Southwest Atlantic
To Retrogress To The Gulf Of Mexico During This Period, Further
Enabling The Digging Northern-stream Trough To Dig Southeast
Into The Northeast And Adjacent Western Atlantic. Thereafter, A
Series Of Systems In The Pacific Will Force The Ridging Eastward
Slowly With Time, And This Will Generate A Big Pattern Change
Next Week, With Cold Troughing Setting Up Shop In The
Central/eastern U.s.
What The Above Hopefully Illustrates Is That This Is A Rather
Complex Large-scale Setup. Despite Better-than-average Agreement
Amongst The Operational/ensemble Models Through This Weekend,
The Forecast Is Of Lower-than-average Confidence Since The
Plethora Of Interactions Among The Perturbations Of Interest Are
Poorly Understood, Not Sufficiently Sampled At This Time (Since
A Lot Of These Systems Are Offshore), And Subject To Extreme
Sensitivity.
For Wednesday, High Pressure In The Eastern U.s. Will Trudge
Slowly Offshore While Central/southern Plains Cyclogenesis
Occurs As A Southern-stream Vort Max Ejects From The Desert
Southwest. Widespread Precipitation Will Break Out In The
South-central U.s., Spreading Northeastward Into The Southern
Mid-atlantic Wednesday Night Along A Zonally-oriented Baroclinic
Zone East Of The Surface Low. The Location Of This Baroclinic
Zone Will Be Critical To The Forecast, Since Downstream
Cyclogenesis Will Occur Along It Thursday And Thursday Night.
The Trend Has Been Northward (At Least With The Gfs), But I Am
Quite Skeptical Since Models Almost Always Overdo Northward
Progression Of These Temperature Gradient Maxima. As Such, I
Lowered Pops In Much Of The Area Wednesday Night, Mostly
Confining Them To The Far Southern Cwa.
By Thursday And Thursday Night, Precipitation Should Break Out
In Much Of The Area As The Associated Upper-level Jet Streak
Sinks Southward As It Progresses Into The Eastern U.s. Favorable
Exit-region Upper-level Divergence Combined With Considerable
Differential Cyclonic Vorticity Advection Downstream Of The
Aforementioned Digging Northern-stream Vort Max Will Generate
Deep Ascent Across The Northeast And Mid-atlantic. Models Have
Generally Trended A Little Downward With Qpf During This Period,
But I Do Not Have A Lot Of Confidence In This Trend. Should The
Phasing Of The Two Systems Be Sooner/stronger Than Forecast
(Which Is Quite Possible, Given The Complex Interactions
Involved, Which Are Not Modeled Well), Fairly Substantial
Precipitation Totals May Occur (More Like The 00z Nam Is
Depicting). The Farther North Trends In General Suggest The
Highest Qpf Will Be North Of The Mason-dixon Line During This
Period, With 0.5-1.5 Inch Totals Possible In This Region During
This Period. Additionally, Temperatures Will Become Cold Enough
For A Potential Wintry Mix In The Poconos And Vicinity By Friday
Morning, Though Quantifying The Severity Of This Threat Is
Challenging This Far In Advance. At This Point, I Suspect
Impacts Will Be Low, As Temperatures Are Marginal At Best.
However, A Lot Of Uncertainty Here, So Stay Tuned.
Meanwhile, The Coastal Low Cranks Up As It Develops Offshore
Thursday Night And Friday, With Considerable Wraparound
Precipitation Generated In The Operational Models On Friday With
Aid From An Inverted Trough Extending West-northwest Of The Low.
This Will Also Be Collocated With The Passage Of The Main Vort
Max, With Enhanced Synoptic-scale Lift In Advance Combined With
Rapidly Cooling Midlevels To Prolong The Wraparound Portion Of
The Event. Though Temperatures Will Be Considerably Cooler On
Friday As Surface Cold Advection Commences, Most Of The Area
Will Probably Remain Too Warm For Wintry Precipitation Outside
Of The Poconos. However, I Am A Little Worried That Forecast
Temperatures May Be Too Warm (Especially If The Colder Ecmwf Is
Right), And With Fairly Steep Lapse Rates Possible In The Cold
Advection, May See Some Snow Even With Surface Temperatures A
Few Degrees Above Freezing. Another "Stay Tuned" Aspect To The
Storm.
Finally, The (Northwest) Winds Will Be Cranking On Friday As
The Offshore Low Intensifies. Kept The Gusts 25-40 Mph During
The Day Given Uncertainty With Low Placement, But I Suspect This
Will End Up Being Too Conservative, Especially Near The Coast.
The Low Will Only Slowly Move Away From The Region This Weekend,
Given The Blocky Pattern Downstream. As Such, Winds May Stay
Fairly Elevated On Saturday As High Pressure Begins To Nose Into
The Region. It Is Unclear How Cold The Weekend Will Be As
Upstream Ridge Amplification May Be Too Far West To Provide A
Warmer (Gfs) Scenario. I Went Well Below Mex Mos Saturday
Through Monday With Dry Conditions Given The Slowly-moving High
Pressure.
Hints Of Another System Exist Tuesday And Wednesday Next Week,
Which May Initiate A Much Colder Period For The Region
Thereafter.

European Ensemble Upper Level Pattern Continues To Suggest High Amplitude Blocking/ Ridge/trough Configuration Into Early March..high Volatility In Temperatures..precipitation And Storm Track Locations/interaction Of Polar And Subtropical Branches Going Forward....

European Ensemble Upper Level Pattern Continues To Suggest High Amplitude Blocking/ Ridge/trough Configuration Into Early March..high Volatility In Temperatures..precipitation And Storm Track Locations/interaction Of Polar And Subtropical Branches Going Forward....

Sunday, February 25, 2018

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.


FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO 
HEAVY RAIN WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MAX RAINFALL 
RATES OF UP TO 1/4 INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. BETWEEN 
1/2 AND 3/4 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 6 
AM, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
 
INTERESTING FINE LINE FEATURE, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED 
FRONTAL FEATURE, WILL REACH NYC/NJ METRO AREAS AROUND 11AM IF IT 
HOLDS TOGETHER, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME BRIEF 
HEAVY RAIN WITH IT. 
 
OTHERWISE...PHASED SUB-TROPICAL AND PAC JET ENERGY WILL 
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NE US THIS MORNING, WITH 
A STRONG MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING NE FROM THE GREAT LAKES 
AND CLOSING OFF AS IT APPROACHES JAMES BAY. 
 
AT THE SURFACE, STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR 
TRACK TODAY, EVENTUALLY STACKING UNDER CLOSING UPPER ENERGY 
NEAR JAMES BAY LATE TODAY. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT, ENTERING THE 
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING, WILL APPROACH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH ITS WARM FRONT, SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING, LIFTING 
TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE, GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WAVE 
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND TRACKING 
SOUTH OF NYC/LI THIS AFTERNOON. 
 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE 
ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AS WCB AND DIVERGENT 
UPPER FLOW TRANSPORT AND LIFT A +3-4 STD PW AIRMASS INTO THE 
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL RAINFALL FOCUSED TO THE NORTH 
OF THE WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING, ACROSS THE REGION, 
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY 
AREAWIDE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS N/NW HILLS FROM 
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. 
 
COLD AIR DAMMING AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL 
HAVE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS. BRIEF 
SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR S CT AT ONSET. OTHERWISE, 
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, PARTICULARLY VALLEYS, WHILE COASTAL AREAS 
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S. SE LI COULD FLIRT WITH 
50 DEGREES IF WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH. 
 
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW 
PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EAST. IN ITS 
WAKE, COULD BE DEALING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY DENSE, FOR 
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.  

FOG A CONCERN THIS MORNING


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING TO BETWEEN 
A QUARTER MILE AND A MILE IN PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN 
SHORE, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY 
EARLY THIS MORNING. IF TRAVELING, USE LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS, SLOW 
DOWN, AND MAINTAIN EXTRA DISTANCE FROM OTHER VEHICLES. BE PREPARED 
FOR RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY.    

map of mesonet observations

LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY



RAINY SUNDAY CONTINUES

RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 
BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE 
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO 
MID 40S TODAY, NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
 
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON 
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

Friday, February 23, 2018



Can’t say enough about the argh in the temperature and sky department but after all it’s February 23rd in the mid Atlantic

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...


Sussex-Carbon-Monroe- ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
than a tenth of an inch.
than a tenth of an inch. * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of less
and Monroe counties. Higher elevations in these counties are
and Monroe counties. Higher elevations in these counties are * WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Carbon more likely to be affected.
may become ice covered and slippery.
may become ice covered and slippery. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Untreated roads, walkways and parking lots
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Untreated roads, walkways and parking lots

MORE WET WEATHER ON THE WAY




As High Pressure Departs To The East And A Warm Front Approaches 
From The West, More Wet Weather Is On The Way. The Bulk Of The 
Precipitation Is Expected To Fall As Rain Today, Although A Brief
Period Of Freezing Rain Is Possible Well North And West Of New 
York City Initially. Temperatures Will Warm Through The 30s Today,
Reaching Or Barely Exceeding 40 Degrees For Portions Of The Area
Late In The Day.

Any Rain Will Taper Off Tonight As A Cold Front Moves Through And
High Pressure Builds To The North. Temperatures Will Hold Steady 
In The Middle 30s To Around 40 Under Partly To Mostly Cloudy 
Skies.

On Saturday, The Next Low Pressure System Will Approach From The 
West, Resulting In Another Round Of Wet Weather Beginning Late In 
The Day And Continuing Into Sunday. Temperatures Remain Rather 
Mild This Weekend, So Just Plain Rain Is Expected Across The Area.  


Thursday, February 22, 2018

TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE NORMAL THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA


WET WEATHER WEEKEND CONTINUES IN THE CARDS

After A Brief Break In Precipitation Overnight, Wet Weather Will  Return To The Region Again Friday Morning. The Bulk Of The   Precipitation Is Expected To Fall As Rain, Although A Brief Period  Of Freezing Rain Is Possible Well North And West Of The City As   Precipitation Begins. Rain And Patchy Fog Will Continue Into   Friday Night Before Tapering Off. Dry Weather Will Be Short Lived,  However, As Rain Chances Begin To Increase Again Saturday   Afternoon.    Near Normal Highs On Friday Will Rise Into The Lower 50s By  Saturday. Overnight Lows Friday Night Will Range From The Mid 30s  To Lower 40s, About 10 To 15 Degrees Above Normal.  


Wednesday, February 21, 2018

TEMPERATURES TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH THURSDAY


HIGH TEMPERATURES MAXED OUT OR TIED ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2018


COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT




Cold Front Approaching From The West Along With Showers Out Ahead Of   It. The Showers Will Overspread The Region This Evening From   Northwest To Southeast. Precipitation Amounts Will Generally Be Less   Than A Half An Inch Overnight. There Will Be An Axis Of Greater   Instability Traversing Southern Portions Of The Area This Evening,   Where We Have Inserted Isolated Thunder. Record Temperatures This   Afternoon (See The Climate Section At The End Of This Product) Will   Only Cool Into The 40s To Near 50s Tonight, With The Exception Of   The Highest Elevations Of The Southern Poconos, E.g., Monroe County,   Where It May Approach Freezing By Day Break. There Is A Low   Potential Of Some Light Freezing Rain Over A Couple Hours Centered   Around Daybreak, Mainly In Monroe County. Given Borderline   Temperatures, Confidence Is Low. We Have Mentioned In The Hwo For   Now. Winds Will Veer Form Southwest To North-northeast Overnight As   The Cold Frontal Passage Occurs, With The Potential For Gusts Up To   Around 20 Mph At Times.  

ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE WAY


Quite An Active Pattern Is Expected Through The Weekend.  
  
Deep Sw Flow Prevails Initially With Ridge Located Over The   
Southeast, And Trough Over The Western United States.  
  
Sfc Frontal Boundary Weakens As It Sags South Of The Area Thursday   
Night, And Lingering Light Precip Temporarily Tapers Off As High   
Pressure Builds To The North. An Area Of Low Pressure Passes To The   
North, Dragging A Warm Front, Occluded Front To The North, Through   
Friday. A Cold Front Quickly Follows Friday Night. Once Again, The   
Front Does Not Make Much Progress To The South, And The Next Low   
Pressure Center Approaches Saturday And Sunday. This Is Out Ahead Of   
Downstream Trough That Ejects Out Of The West And Makes Eastward   
Progress Across The Mid Section Of The Country. The Low Tracks Well   
To The North, With A Warm Front Passing, Followed By A Cold Front   
Sunday And Sunday Night.   
  
High Pressure Builds Monday And Tuesday.  
  
Even Though Temperatures Will Be No Where Near The Record Readings   
Of The Past Couple Of Days, Above Normal Temperatures Are   
Anticipated Though The Period. Highest Readings Expected This   
Weekend Ahead Of Downstream System When Waa Ensues.  
  
As For Sensible Weather, Lingering Light Precip Thursday Night Will   
Be Mainly In The Form Of Rain, But A Wintry Mix Of Rain And Sleet,   
Or Freezing Rain And Sleet, Is Expected Across The Interior.  
  
This Is True For Friday Morning As Well If Precip Moves Back In   
Early Enough, But All Locations Should See Plain Rain When The Bulk   
Of The Precip Arrives Ahead Of The Warm Front As Temps Warm.  
  
When Precipitation Does Occur This Weekend, It Will Be In The Form   
Of Rain.  

LONG ISLAND DENSE FOG ADVISORY

Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
411 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* VISIBILITIES...One quarter mile or less at times.



WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING LEAD TO RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON




Tuesday, February 20, 2018

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY FEBRUARY 20, 2018


RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY  
  
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 1949.  

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY  
  
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 1943.  

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BREAKS AT BRIDGEPORT CT  
  
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES WAS TIED AT BRIDGEPORT CT   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 1991.  

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY  
  
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 2016. 

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GEORGETOWN DE  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT GEORGETOWN DE   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2002. 

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WILMINGTON DE  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES WAS SET AT WILMINGTON DE   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1930.  

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MOUNT POCONO PA  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT MOUNT POCONO PA   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 1939.  

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1939.  
  

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TRENTON NJ  
  
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71 DEGREES WAS SET AT TRENTON NJ TODAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1930. THIS TEMPERATURE MAY   
RISE RISE MORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON  

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTIC CITY NJ  
  
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTIC CITY NJ   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1930. THIS   
TEMPERATURE MAY RISE MORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE WAY FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

The Long-term Period Begins With A Continuation Of Unseasonably  Mild Weather, Aided By Southwesterly Flow Around And Unusually  Strong Mid-/upper-level Ridge Along The East Coast. At Least  Some Partial Sunshine Is Expected To Help Temperatures Reach The  Low To Mid 70s In Most Areas. A Number Of Max Temperature  Records Are Likely To Be Broken; See The Climate Secction Below.     Later On Wednesday The Upper Ridge Begins To Be Suppressed And A  Cold Front Is Forecast To Push South Across The Forecast Area  Wednesday Night. There Does Not Seem To Be Much Forcing For Uvv  With The Front So We Have Included Only A Slight Chance Of  Showers For Most Areas With The Frontal Passage. The Front Will  Result In A Return To More Normal Temps For Late February.    This Front Is Expected To Stall Somewhat South Of Delaware.  However The Cool Air Looks Rather Shallow And Low Level Warm  Advection Develops Above It By Thursday And And Continues Into   Friday/saturday. This Waa Plus Some Apparent Weak Impluses In   The Continuing Sw Flow Aloft Should Result In Periods Of Rain   For The Latter Part Of The Week And Into The Weekend. Confidence  In The Timing However Is Below Average. Daytime Highs Should  Gradually Increased Above Normal.    By Sunday A Stronger Shortwave Trof Is Forecast To Approach From  The West, With The Associated Surface Frontal System To Cross  The Mid-atlantic Region Late In The Day. More Widespread Rain Is  Expect Ahead Of The Is System On Saturday Night And Sunday,  Followed By Clearing On Monday.   




6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS





AN UNSEASONABLY WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS RETURN REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO RECORD WARMTH. TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 70S. FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST


Monday, February 19, 2018

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 20, 2018  
  
LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR  
NEWARK..............70/1939   
BRIDGEPORT..........54/1991   
CENTRAL PARK........69/1939   
LAGUARDIA...........63/1943   
JFK.................61/1949   
ISLIP...............62/2016  
  
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 21, 2018  
  
LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR  
NEWARK..............69/1953  
BRIDGEPORT..........59/2002  
CENTRAL PARK........68/1930  
LAGUARDIA...........68/1953  
JFK.................63/2002   
ISLIP...............63/2002  
  





Tuesday, February 6, 2018

WEAK LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WILL PASS TO THE NORTH, ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND, THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW COULD BEGIN TO FALL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE CITY AND ALONG THE COAST, WITH MAINLY SNOW FOR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FOR THE CITY AND THE COAST BY MIDDAY, WITH A CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX FURTHER NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO A WINTRY MIX OR ALL SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO LATE AT NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 500 AM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE WELL INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20 INLAND TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE COAST, AND AROUND 30 IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO REGION. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST.