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Thursday, June 14, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC... NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL THU JUN 14 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
127 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N25W 
TO 02N26W, MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS IN A FAVORABLE WIND 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND THE CIRA LPW SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GOES-16 GEOCOLOR RGB IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER DUST AND DRY AIR N OF THE WAVE
AT 15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
11N41W TO 01N42W, MOVING W AT 15 KT. GOES SAL AND DUST RGBS SHOW 
THE WAVE HAS DRY AIR AND DUST N OF 12N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTS 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 12N56W TO 03N58W, MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 11N. THIS FACTOR ALONG WITH STRONG WIND 
SHEER IN THE REGION IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 55W AND 
60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N74W TO 10N75W, MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. METEOSAT SPLIT 
WINDOW IMAGERY SHOW SAL DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E 
CARIBBEAN, WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG WIND SHEER HINDERS THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 12N91W, MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N15W 
TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 07N25W, THEN RESUMES 
WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N28W AND CONTINUES TO 05N41W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES AGAIN W OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N44W AND
CONTINUES TO 06N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 10W-17W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 
THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA, AND THE NE GULF N OF 29N. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  

EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE THE SW GULF TONIGHT. 
THE WAVE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS ON FRI AND SAT, 
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST 
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. IN 
ADDITION, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 82W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. 

EXPECT THE YUCATAN TROPICAL WAVE TO EXIT THE PENINSULA THU. EXPECT
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE TO  MOVE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEST
CARIBBEAN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
ENTER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT AND FRI, AND REACH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STRONG TRADES 
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST 
ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 70W AND 85W THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE TO THE W 
ATLANTIC. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF 74W, TO INCLUDE THE 
BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N53W TO 26N62W. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240
NM E OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N32W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 50W AND N OF 20N. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT 
EAST FRI AND SAT ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WATERS NORTH OF 26N OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 13 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BUD CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 109.4W AT 03900 UTC ABOUT 
100 NM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND IN 
A CONVECTIVE BAND BETWEEN 60-120 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. BUD 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NNW INTO SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL 
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ, 
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, AND THE NE 
PACIFIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

A DISORGANIZED AREA LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13.5N9100W IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0330 
UTC AND YESTERDAY AT 1620 UTC BOTH INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH 
WITH 20-25 KT WINDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A POORLY DEFINED 
CIRCULATION CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
EVIDENT WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THIS POINT. NHC ESTIMATES THERE IS 
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 14N96W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 13.5N100W TO 14N110W TO 06N131W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
06N131W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 270 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 86W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

SEE ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE ON TROPICAL STORM 
BUD AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SSW OF ACAPULCO. ELSEWHERE, A 
BROAD RIDGE NW OF THE AREA AND TROUGHING OVER BAJA WILL SUPPORT 
MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N AND WEST OF BAJA 
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. NW SWELL ORIGINATING FROM NORTH OF 
THE AREA SUPPORTS 7-8 FT SEAS W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, 
MERGED AND REINFORCED BY SWELL GENERATED REMNANT LOW ALETTA AND 
TROPICAL STORM BUD, CREATING A CONFUSED STATE OF SWELL DIRECTION 
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY.

OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SE OF
ACAPULCO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST 
WATERS, AND WILL BE NEAR 12N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE 
MONSOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALETTA CENTERED NEAR 16N119W CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS, 
ROUGHLY N OF 15N AND W OF 120W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS 
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY. 

NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED NORTH OF 30N IS COMBINING WITH SWELL 
GENERATED FROM ALETTA AND BUD TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT OVER 
THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. IN ADDITION, LONG PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 130W, 
RESULTING IN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IN EQUATORIAL WATERS THROUGH SAT.