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Wednesday, June 13, 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EASTERN PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON....EVENING JUNE 13 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
204 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N21W
TO 02N23W, MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS IN A FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND THE CIRA LPW SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER, THE GOES-16 GEOCOLOR RGB IMAGERY SHOW
THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THAT REGION, WHICH SEEM
TO BE HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
10N39W TO 01N39W, MOVING W AT 15 KT. GOES SAL AND DUST RGBS SHOW
THE WAVE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND DUST, WHICH IS
HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W
AND 44W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 390 NM SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N54W TO 03N55W, MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER, HOWEVER CIRA LPW IMAGERY
SHOW SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION TO THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT ALREADY. THIS
FACTOR ALONG WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N73W TO 10N75W, MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. METEOSAT SPLIT WINDOW
IMAGERY SHOW SAL DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN, WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR HINDER THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W 
TO 07N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 05N38W, THEN RESUMES 
WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N41W AND CONTINUES TO 04N51W. 
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 12W-18W, 
AND FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUE TO EXTEND TO GREAT PORTIONS 
OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATE THE 
SW GULF WATERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE CARIBBEAN 
ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW IN THE W GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE IS GENERATING 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA, EXTENDING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS LATER 
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NO 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY 
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT 
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS, IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TODAY, AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS, HOWEVER BOTH SAHARAN DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND
SHEAR IN THE REGION HINDER DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TIME. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND NICARAGUA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE TO THE SW N ATLC
WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N79W ACROSS SE FLORIDA TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N56W TO 27N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TAIL ALONG 31N54W TO 27N60W SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS N 
OF 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. OTHERWISE, THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT EAST FRI AND SAT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST 
THROUGH THE WATERS NORTH OF 26N OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1916 UTC WED JUN 13 2018

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 108.9W AT 2100 UTC OR 
190 NM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MOVING NNW AT 5 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES 
TO RAPIDLY DECREASE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND 
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE E 
SEMICIRCLE. BUD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NNW INTO 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE THU, THEN PASS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA LATER ON FRI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ, INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. 
OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS S OF 
25N AND E OF 113W THU NIGHT AND FRI. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST NHC 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, AND 
THE NE PACIFIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST WMO/AWIPS HEADERS 
FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MEASURING 1009 MB IS 
CURRENTLY CENTERED SSE OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 11.5N98.5W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ELSEWHERE FROM
07N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. THIS SYSTEM POSSESSES A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
WELL AS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 09N79W ACROSS PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA TO 12N95W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB CENTERED NEAR 
11.5N98.5W TO 12N103W, THEN RESUMES S OF T.S. BUD NEAR 13N108W TO
12N115W TO 06N131W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N131W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
PRESENT FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W, AND FROM 06N TO 
13N BETWEEN 102W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

SEE ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE ON TROPICAL STORM 
BUD AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SSW OF ACAPULCO. ELSEWHERE, A 
BROAD RIDGE W OF THE AREA AND TROUGHING OVER BAJA WILL SUPPORT 
MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N AND WEST OF BAJA 
PENINSULA THROUGH THU. A PULSE OF NW SWELL MAINTAINS 8 FT SEAS W 
OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, MERGED WITH SWELL GENERATED EARLIER 
BY ALETTA, AND ADDITIONAL SWELL GENERATED BY BUD WILL PROPAGATE 
NW AND ADD TO THE CONFUSED STATE OF SWELL DIRECTIONS W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THU. 

OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SE OF
ACAPULCO THROUGH THE WEEK. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT N ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
FROM NEAR 10N TO NEAR 12N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LIGHT 
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHILE 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON 
THROUGH THE WEEK. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALETTA, CENTERED NEAR 16N119W, REMAINS
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SATELLITE- 
DERIVED WIND DATA FROM AROUND 1800Z INDICATES PEAK WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 15 KT. 
8-FOOT SEAS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
DIMINISH. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
BY THU NIGHT.

A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 
37N143W TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. 

NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS COMBINING WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM 
ALETTA TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST 
WATERS. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING N OF
THE EQUATOR E OF 130W, AND ADDITIONAL SWELL GENERATED BY 
TROPICAL STORM BUD WILL ADD TO THE MIX AND MAINTAIN SEAS NEAR 8 
FT FOR THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THROUGH SAT.