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Wednesday, July 11, 2018

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG TROUGH..MESOSCALE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THISAFTERNOON....TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY

THE LATEST CAMS INDICATE POP-UP SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK   
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.   
THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG   
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH/SEA-BREEZE FRONT PROVIDING THE   
LIFT FOR CONVECTION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST MODELS   
SHOW SBCAPE VALUES PEAKING IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE THIS   
AFTERNOON, A CLOSER LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE   
PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL CAP THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT   
STRENGTH/VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.   
ACCORDINGLY, THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY APPEARS TO   
BE VERY LOW.  

  
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-  
ATLANTIC REGIONS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS   
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL   
INFLUENCE THE STEERING MOTION OF HURRICANE CHRIS, CAUSING IT TO   
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  
  
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/SEA-BREEZE FRONT  
COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY THIS   
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NJ TURNPIKE. THERE IS A   
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO BE SUSTAINED DURING THE NIGHT   
AS DEEPER LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH   
AND IN THE RIGHT- ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.   
MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS, INCLUDING CAMS, FAVOR OVERNIGHT SHOWER   
ACTIVITY IN THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY.  
  
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF  
I-80 WHERE CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, DRIER AIR   
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL   
COOLING SETUP. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND  
COASTAL PLAIN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO   
UPPER 60S.  
    
  
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE   
EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE   
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
  
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDS EASTWARD   
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE FRONT TO   
OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. WHILE THERE ARE NO STRONG  
SURFACE FEATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, A COUPLE OF SHORT   
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON   
THURSDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO   
DEVELOP WITH SOME ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERLY   
LOW LEVEL FLOW. PW VALUES ARE ONLY 1.00-1.25 INCHES, SO ANY   
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY.  
  
THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE   
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUR   
AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH, ALTHOUGH IT   
BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT, SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED   
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
  
ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION, AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER,   
THE FRONT MAY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.   
NEVERTHELESS, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE   
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT TO CREATE   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY   
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
  
BY SUNDAY, A SURFACE MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST   
COAST, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND   
TUESDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND   
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES ARE   
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT   
WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE, AS RIDING ALOFT BUILDS   
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AND THE   
SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE, ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT   
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND   
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT IS   
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,   
WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
AREA. SO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME ACTIVE   
AT TIMES.